Market adjustments to import sanctions: lessons from Chinese restrictions on Australian trade, 2020–21

Ferguson, Victor; Waldron, Scott A.; Lim, Darren J.

doi:10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…It was later escalated to a quasi-sanction, where Australian food products were being held up in Chinese ports in the name of food security inspections in November 2020 (Tan, 2020 November 2). Afterward, the bilateral trade between the two countries dropped significantly (Ferguson, Waldron, and Lim, 2021). In that situation, Australian exporters needed to seek an alternative to replace the volume of Chinese trade via reallocation and adjustment; hence Hong Kong (also Japan) became their target importer.…”

Section: Conveying or Otherwise Dealing With Any Article Contrary To ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

When Crime Meets Pandemic: Organized Crimes and Triad Societies’ Activities during COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Luk¹

2023

Int. J. Criminol. Sociol.

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Recent studies suggest that the pandemic has impacted criminal activities and organized crime groups. This article provides a qualitative review of changes in crime rates, patterns, and activities of organized crime groups (specifically, Triads) in Hong Kong. Three specific types of organized crimes with high Triad involvement were selected: serious violent crimes, serious drug-related crimes, and smuggling. After analyzing both official and non-official sources, the results showed that despite the government's stringent control measures that significantly suppressed socio-economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, the figures for these selected crimes rose tremendously. Triads' organized criminal activities became more frequent, dangerous, and aggressive, posing a severe threat to Hong Kong's law and order.

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Section: Conveying or Otherwise Dealing With Any Article Contrary To ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

When Crime Meets Pandemic: Organized Crimes and Triad Societies’ Activities during COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

Luk¹

2023

Int. J. Criminol. Sociol.

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“…Thus, substantial literature examines the mechanisms through which exporters facing import restrictions in the target country can mitigate the costs associated with losing access to the market in restriction imposing country. Existing literature suggests that the central determinant of adjustment to trade restrictions is the market dynamics of affected products and industries and reveals three mechanisms in the market dynamics: reallocation, deflection and transformation (Early, 2015; Ferguson et al, 2022; McLean & Whang, 2010; Peterson, 2014).…”

Section: Theory and Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…China unilaterally imposed trade restrictions on Australian barley, beef, coal, cotton, timber, copper and wine in 2020 and 2021, providing a case for investigating a country's vulnerability when they rely heavily on a single market and access to that market is suddenly cut. These recent China–Australia trade tensions have received limited attention (Ferguson et al, 2022; Giesecke et al, 2021; Laurenceson, 2021; Wickes et al, 2021; Wittwer & Anderson, 2021; Zhou & Laurenceson, 2022). For example, Ferguson et al (2022) examine Australian market adjustments to China's trade restrictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These recent China–Australia trade tensions have received limited attention (Ferguson et al, 2022; Giesecke et al, 2021; Laurenceson, 2021; Wickes et al, 2021; Wittwer & Anderson, 2021; Zhou & Laurenceson, 2022). For example, Ferguson et al (2022) examine Australian market adjustments to China's trade restrictions. Giesecke et al (2021) utilize issues related to Australia’s coal trade with China to propose a better framework for assessing the vulnerability of coercive trade tools.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions

Xiong,

Zhang,

Zhao

2023

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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In early 2020, China, Australia's top export market, unilaterally imposed trade restrictions on Australian barley, beef, coal, cotton, timber, copper and wine. However, convincing evidence regarding the effects of such trade restrictions on firms is scarce. Leveraging data on daily stock returns from 20 listed Australian and 32 listed Chinese firms that produce the restricted commodities, we provide the first systematic analysis of the firm‐level economic impacts of China's trade restrictions on Australian and Chinese firms. We find significant adverse effects on Australian firms' stock returns, leading to almost 20% loss within 10 trading days; however, most firms' stock returns immediately rebounded. In contrast, Chinese firms usually saw significant positive stock returns, leading to almost 30% gains, and the positive abnormal returns continuously increased within 10 trading days. Media coverage and trade dependence substantially impact Australian and Chinese firms' stock returns—industries with stronger trade dependence on China saw greater losses in Australian firms' stock returns. Our results suggest that trade reallocation and deflection are two effective mitigation mechanisms for Australian exporters facing China's trade restrictions.

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“…defines national security in an objective sense as comprising a policy environment that entails a low probability of damage to acquired values; in a subjective sense, the absence of fear that such values will be attacked. This definition captures both threats to national sovereignty and societal values.2 For example, against Korea; Australia(Ferguson et al, 2022) and Lithuania(Blockmans, 2021). 3 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_6642.…”

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confidence: 99%

Geopolitical competition, globalisation and WTO reform

2023

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This paper discusses options to manage spillovers of unilateral trade policies motivated by national security and other non‐economic objectives on global trade and investment. Within the WTO framework, we argue a ‘specific trade concern’ mechanism is likely to be more effective than dispute settlement to address national security‐motivated trade intervention. More broadly, we propose creation of a platform for governments, supported by relevant international organisations, to enhance transparency and assess the effectiveness and magnitude of the spillover effects of trade/related policies of systemic import. This would serve to help identify efficient instruments to achieve economic and non‐economic goals and inform WTO reform discussions on subsidies and discriminatory trade policies. Plurilateral cooperation among like‐minded nations offers a pragmatic pathway to address spillover effects of policies to achieve security and other non‐economic objectives but requires a stronger governance framework to ensure consistency with an open multilateral trading system.

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Market adjustments to import sanctions: lessons from Chinese restrictions on Australian trade, 2020–21

Cited by 13 publications

References 62 publications

When Crime Meets Pandemic: Organized Crimes and Triad Societies’ Activities during COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

When Crime Meets Pandemic: Organized Crimes and Triad Societies’ Activities during COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong

When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions

Geopolitical competition, globalisation and WTO reform

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