Market arrival of apples under risk in Jammu &amp; Kashmir, India: evidence from an ARDL application

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the relationship between prudence in risk attitudes and patience of time preference of Chinese apple growers regarding off-farm cold storage of production and marketing in non-harvest seasons. The authors also consider the effect of farmer participation in cooperative-like organizations known as Farm Bases (FBs).Design/methodology/approachThe authors use multiple list methods and elicitation strategies to measure Chinese apple farmers' risk attitudes and time preferences. Because these farmers can either sell their apples immediately to supermarkets or intermediaries or place them in storage, the authors assess correlations between their storage decisions and their preferences regarding risk and time. The authors also differentiate risks involving gains and losses and empirically examine individual risk attitudes in different scenarios.FindingsMarketing decisions are moderately associated with risk attitudes but not time preference. Farmers with memberships in local farmer cooperatives are likely to speculate more in cold storage. Thus, risk aversion behavioral and psychological motives affect farmers' decision-making of cold storage and intertemporal marketing activities. However, membership in cooperatives does not always result in improved income and welfare for farmers.Research limitations/implicationsThe research confirms that behavioral factors may strongly drive vulnerable smallholder farmers to speculate into storage even under seasonal and uncertain marketing volatility. There is the need to think deeper about the rationale of promoting cooperatives and other agricultural forms, because imposing these without careful consideration can have negative impacts.Originality/valueDo risk and time preferences affect the decision of farmers to utilize storage facilities? This question is important because it is not clear if and how risk preferences affect the tradeoff between consuming today and saving for tomorrow, especially for farmers in developing countries.

Section: Conclusion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Research Design Methods and Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Losses because of risk attitudes or time preference: off-farm cold storage and intertemporal marketing of apple growers in China

Jin

Jia

James

2022

“…This framework has been used in several studies (e.g. Kumar et al, 2021;Mustapha and Said, 2016;Akber and Paltasingh, 2020;Chopra, 2022). Prior to estimating the ARDL framework, the authors tested the unit root status of the variables, with and without structural breaks.…”

Section: Analytical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food import demand with structural breaks, economic embargo and the COVID-19 pandemic in a wealthy, highly import-dependent country

Kaitibie

Missiame

Irungu

et al. 2023

PurposeQatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three year-long economic embargo enforced by regional neighbors and the covariate shock of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the country's vulnerability to food insecurity and potential for structural breaks in macroeconomic data. The purpose of this paper is to examine short- and long-run determinants of Qatar's imports of aggregate food, meats, dairy and cereals in the presence of structural breaks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use 24 years of food imports, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) data obtained from Qatar's Planning and Statistics Authority. They use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework and Chambers and Pope's exact nonlinear aggregation approach.FindingsUnit root tests in the presence of structural breaks reveal a mixture of I (1) and I (0) variables for which standard cointegration techniques do not apply. The authors found evidence of a significant long-run relationship between structural changes and food imports in Qatar. Impulse response functions indicate full adjustments within three-quarters of a year in the event of an exogenous shock to imports.Research limitations/implicationsAn exogenous shock of one standard deviation on this variable would reduce Qatar's food imports by about 2.5% during the first period but recover after the third period.Originality/valueThe failure of past aggregate food demand studies to go beyond standard unit root testing creates considerable doubt about the accuracy of their elasticity estimates. The authors avoid that to provide more credible findings.

“…Findings revealed a negative and significant linkage between CO 2 emissions and economic growth, while there is a positive and significant association between agricultural output and economic growth. Akber and Paltasingh (2020) examined the market response of apple growers to price-risk along with weather-risk in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach, the study confirmed the existence of the long-run relationship between the price elasticities of apples' market arrival and also the elasticity concerning price-risk and weather-risk variables.…”

Section: Theoretical Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability assessment of crops' production in India: empirical evidence from ARDL-ECM approach

Chopra

2022

PurposeThe study aims to evaluate the long- vs short-run relationships between crops' production (output) and crops' significant inputs such as land use, agricultural water use (AWU) and gross irrigated area in India during the period 1981–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate the co-integration among the variables. The study uses the error correction model (ECM), which integrates the short-run dynamics with the long-run equilibrium.FindingsThe ARDL bounds test of co-integration confirms the strong evidence of the long-run relationship among the variables. Empirical results show the positive and significant relationship of crops' production with land use and gross irrigated area. The statistically significant error correction term (ECT) validates the speed of adjustment of the empirical models in the long-run.Research limitations/implicationsThe study suggests that the decision-makers must understand potential trade-offs between human needs and environmental impacts to ensure food for the growing population in India.Originality/valueFor a clear insight into the impact of climate change on crops' production, the current study incorporates the climate variables such as annual rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Further, the study considered agro-chemicals, i.e. fertilizers and pesticides, concerning their negative impacts on increased agricultural production and the environment.