Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition

Thies, Christian; Kieckhäfer, Karsten; Spengler, Thomas S.

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2015.05.002

Cited by 30 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The buying decision of the LSP is operationalized in a supplier DCM. We transformed a basic discrete choice model (see [38][39][40][41]) into a binomial logit model with one decision-maker (LSP) and two alternatives (buy battery-electric HDT or diesel HDT), assuming that the stochastic components of the basic discrete choice model are independently, uniformly, and Gumbel-distributed, with scaling parameter β and location parameter µ. We chose a Gumbel distribution, since it represents an extreme value distribution type I [40], which is required for this problem, as the individual decision is discrete in nature and can therefore only be "buy" or "don't buy."…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Moll

Plötz

Hadwich

et al. 2020

WEVJ

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Especially in urban areas, a large proportion of air pollution can be attributed to road traffic. Thus, in many countries, bans are being discussed on diesel vehicles in inner cities. These diesel bans pose a severe threat to logistics service providers (LSPs) that are active in city logistics, since their fleets are based on diesel-powered vehicles. One solution for LSPs is to introduce battery-electric heavy-duty trucks (HDTs). However, this is rarely done at present, due to high investment costs of such trucks. In order to compensate these high investments, high mileages are required in order to benefit from such vehicles’ low operating costs. Implementing 24-hour delivery would increase the daily mileage of HDTs. Because of noise emission regulations, 24-hour delivery could only be performed using battery-electric HDTs. In this study, we explore whether using battery-electric HDTs for 24-hour delivery is economical for LSPs. We use data from a German LSP in food logistics, develop a system dynamics model, and integrate a total cost of ownership calculation along with an LSP and a retail store discrete choice model to determine whether 24-hour delivery with battery-electric HDTs is profitable for the LSP, and how it might be accepted and diffused among stores. We find that 24-hour delivery using battery-electric HDTs is immediately profitable. This is due to the almost 50% increase in the daily trip potential of battery-electric HDTs in comparison to diesel HDTs, which leads to a lower required total number of HDTs in the fleet. Lower transportation costs, increased delivery quality, and decreased risk lead to rapid adoption of 24-hour delivery among stores, while lower total costs of ownership (TCO) accelerate the adoption by the LSP. Diffusion through the fleet and stores takes only slightly longer than one HDT lifetime. Consequently, 24-hour delivery with battery-electric HDTs is a promising solution for innovative and sustainable city logistics.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Moll

Plötz

Hadwich

et al. 2020

WEVJ

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“…Kieckhäfer et al (2017) show that the long-term market success of AFVs might necessitate the elimination of conventional powertrain technologies from the product portfolio. Thies et al (2016) find that pricing decisions are an important lever to steer the market diffusion of AFVs. The same holds for marketing strategies, according to Harrison et al (2018).…”

Section: Literature: Approaches To Vehicle Project Portfolio Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project portfolio planning under CO₂ fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry

Thies

Hüls

Kieckhäfer

et al. 2022

J of Industrial Ecology

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This paper aims to identify financially and environmentally promising project portfolio decisions under CO2 fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry. These decisions are particularly difficult due to uncertain demand, ever‐stricter CO2 fleet emission thresholds, and an increasing number of alternative powertrain technologies that can be integrated into different vehicle projects with high project‐specific investments and long product life cycles. We develop a mixed‐integer linear programming model that maximizes the net present value of car manufacturers’ project portfolios, so‐called cycle plans, by selecting specific vehicle projects and by determining the respective production quantities to comply with the given thresholds for the CO2 fleet emissions. By applying the model to an illustrative European car manufacturer, promising cycle plan decisions are determined and analyzed across six market demand scenarios. The results reveal that compliance with the European emission thresholds until 2035 is generally possible if electric vehicle demand gains momentum, but threshold exceedance and corresponding penalty payments can be financially advantageous in some situations. Long‐term compliance with CO2 regulation and financial success is supported by the fast market introduction of battery electric vehicles and the preparation of fuel cell electric vehicles for a later market introduction in large‐sized vehicles.

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“…This prevents us from analysing lock-in effects once a certain manufacturer has decided to invest heavily in a given technology. Thies et al [21] considered this for two manufacturers. Further work could revolve around explicitly modelling competition among more than two manufacturers.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the number of studies considering the industrial perspective is currently low in the English language (see [20][21][22]). The German automotive industry has been examined using system dynamics in various theses published in German [23][24][25], as has the Japanese market [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Harrison

Vilchez

Thiel

2018

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose: In this study, we consider the European electro-mobility market from an industrial perspective, and focus on effects of market conditions and manufacturer strategies, with the objective to gain insight on what could inhibit the successful market penetration of electric powertrain vehicles. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles.Results: Impacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions. Conclusion:It is concluded from the results presented here that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral.

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Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition

Cited by 30 publications

References 29 publications

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Project portfolio planning under CO₂ fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

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Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition

Cited by 30 publications

References 29 publications

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Are Battery-Electric Trucks for 24-Hour Delivery the Future of City Logistics?—A German Case Study

Project portfolio planning under CO2 fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Project portfolio planning under CO₂ fleet emission restrictions in the automotive industry