Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models

Abstract

project are successfully compared with those observational datasets results. Then, the study of climate change projections on the markovian behaviour is studied through the ECHAM5r2 global climate model and the regional models under present and future (2021-2050) climate conditions. They indicate that the markovian characteristics of dry spells are kept in the future over the domain except some points in the South East coast. A decrease of the probability of occurrence of short dry spells (1-7 days) is obtained, while the longest dry spells (>12 days) are increased. These results are coherent with the analysis of the annual average of dry spells length.

Extreme dry spells over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season: Assessment of HyMeX/Med‐CORDEX regional climate simulations (1979–2009)

“…They found that the models tend to underestimate the CDD values over most of the domain. López-Franca et al (2015) also used five models from ESCENA project to detect dry spells in Spain. In their study, dry spells are characterized as number of CDD, averaged on an annual scale for each grid point scale (they use the "annual average of dry spells length" index, AADSL).…”

Evaluation of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Extreme Dry Spells in Southwest China

“…It should be noted that large spatial variability differences are found among different RCM simulations. This variability can be attributed to the variance of RCMs in simulating extreme dry spells over complex terrain areas (Herrera et al, 2010;López-Franca et al, 2015). It is also worth noting that the RCMs reasonably simulate the spatial distribution of the interannual variability of AMDSL.…”

“…They found that the models tend to have negative CDD number bias compared to observations. López-Franca et al (2015) also used five RCMs from the ESCENA project to detect the annual average of dry spells length (AADSL) index in Spain. In their study, they found that the five RCM simulations reproduced the observed AADSL pattern in Spain well.…”

Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Dry Spells during Rainy Season in the Wei River Basin, China

“…Therefore, studying the changing patterns of precipitation is of great importance for the evaluation of hydrological and meteorological consequences, for example, drought and flooding events, associated with global warming. In particular, as one of the costliest natural disasters through the agrosocioeconomic aspects in many areas of the world [4][5][6], droughts are expected to occur more frequently, caused by the predicted changes in the hydrologic cycle [7,8]. Meanwhile, they are also supposed to largely affect the socioeconomic activities, water resources management, agriculture policies, and so forth [3].…”

“…Many studies have been performed for the research of drought, such as the definition and evaluation of droughts, including the spatiotemporal structure and statistical characteristic analysis, [3,4,9,10] and the multivariable probability distributions jointly considering multiple drought variables (such as duration, severity, and magnitude) simultaneously [11][12][13]. Knowledge about the anticipated changes in drought frequency or magnitude by means of persistent daily precipitation deficiency (i.e., dry spell of precipitation) has attracted more and more interest [8,[14][15][16][17] and is considered to be necessary for the design and application of valid and reasonable drought resistance strategies.…”