Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives

Abstract

Recent research on direct democracy has focused on the spatial component of voter decision making, finding that when the benefits from a proposed initiative are geographically dependent, support for the initiative in that area increases. However, the existing research has yet to fully specify the factors that lead to benefits for geographically adjacent individuals. Using a unique wave of direct democracy initiatives, and developing a new measure for "climate context," we test the link between climates favorable for cultivation and the support for the legalization of recreational cannabis. Employing spatial regression analysis and geographically specific voting data for ballot measures in Arizona, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington from 2010 to 2016, we find there is an observable relationship between climate and support for legalization, indicating that when climate attributes are favorable for cultivation, support for these measures increase. Our findings suggest that climate context is an important, and previously unspecified, factor for ballot measures with a climatic component.

The effect of place on voting behavior: The case of the Arizona proposition to legalize recreational marijuana

“…Previous studies indicate a nuanced relationship between income and marijuana legalization voting behavior. First, people in precincts with lower median incomes may have voted in favor of legalization in anticipation of job creation and economic development (Branton & McGauvran, 2018). At the same time, people in affluent areas with less need for job creation may have been more swayed by arguments that associate marijuana legalization with crime (Branton & McGauvran, 2018).…”

“…First, people in precincts with lower median incomes may have voted in favor of legalization in anticipation of job creation and economic development (Branton & McGauvran, 2018). At the same time, people in affluent areas with less need for job creation may have been more swayed by arguments that associate marijuana legalization with crime (Branton & McGauvran, 2018). However, in a 2020 Gallup Poll, support for marijuana legalization rose along with incomes, with those in the $100,000 + group showing the highest support (Brenan, 2020), so the conditioned association between income and marijuana support needs further investigation.…”

“…Previous research regarding recreational marijuana legalization ballot measures in other states has typically utilized surveys taken by phone (Collingwood et al., 2018; McGinty et al., 2017; Subbaraman & Kerr, 2016, 2017) or via the Internet (Nielsen, 2010) with questions designed to measure support for recreational marijuana legalization. An alternative approach is to use voting outcomes at the county (Beltz et al., 2020) or precinct level (Branton & McGauvran, 2018). Researchers have used several demographic variables to understand support for marijuana legalization ballot measures, including race/ethnicity, age, gender, income, education, and “urban‐ness” (Beltz et al., 2020; Collingwood et al., 2018).…”

Summary of articles in the February 2024 issue of Politics & Policy and a few editor's tips

“…Contributing strongly to P&P's growing repository of articles on the legalization of recreational marijuana in the United States (see, e.g., Branton & McGauvran, 2018;Brekken & Fenley, 2020;Fisk et al, 2018), Mathews and Fotheringham (2024) examine how local context adds nuance when accounting for local variations in voting behavior. They show that spatial modeling assists analyses of the covariate effects on ballot measure voting behavior in some rather significant ways.…”