MASK MANDATES REDUCE COVID-19 MORTALITY: Analysis of 37 States and the District of Columbia, with a further analysis of the impact of demographic and medical factors on efficacy

Abstract

As the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US increased, various policies were enacted to slow the spread of the pandemic. While the situation has improved in recent months, determining how best to combat the current pandemic is still essential. Failure to do so invites both further resurgences of the current pandemic, and more pandemics in the years to come. As a result of the widespread failure to contain the spread of COVID-19, enough deaths have occurred that the impact of policy on mortality may be statistically evaluated. This paper uses Optimal Discriminant Analysis (ODA) to evaluate the hypothesized ability of limited mask mandates (MM) to reduce the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in the states analyzed. The mandates were found to reduce mortality in half the states analyzed and did not result in increased mortality in any states. A full range of cofactors were analyzed to determine which, if any, influenced the efficacy of the mandates in the states in which mandates had an effect. Institutional Health Subindex of the Social Capital Index, state health score, population density, portion of the population with nongroup health insurance, state GDP, and the rate of pregnancy related diabetes were all correlated with increased mandate efficacy. In contrast, incarceration rate, overcrowded housing, severely overcrowded housing, portion of the population with military provided insurance, portion of the population uninsured, the portion of the population unable to see a doctor due to cost, and the portion of the population who were American Indian/Native Alaskan were all correlated with reduced mandate efficacy.