Matching the Demand for and Supply of Training in the School‐to‐Work Transition

Abstract

This empirical paper investigates skill formation in the youth labour market. Using eventhistory data collected from the administrative records of Lancashire Careers Service, we model training preferences' formed at school by young people and`training destinations', ie the occupation of the ®rst job/training scheme. We also model the duration of the individual's ®rst unemployment spell. Competing risks models with¯exible piece-wise linear baseline hazards and unobserved heterogeneity are estimated. There is evidence of occupational segregation by gender and an excess demand for general training. Outcomes are mainly determined by examination performance, ethnicity and whether disadvantaged.There is considerable concern about the quality and quantity of workforce skills in many advanced countries. This concern stems from the view that a highly skilled workforce is necessary for survival in an increasingly competitive world market, and from the view that the pace of skill-biased technological change generates a need for an adaptable and¯exible workforce. 1 In Britain, the problem is even more acute, as it is well-established that Britain suffers from a so-called`skills gap' in comparison with some of its main international competitors, such as Germany.In Britain, the skills gap is widest at the intermediate level, where there are too few craft and technician workers. These skills are often acquired early in a worker's career, via apprenticeships, traineeships and the Youth Training (YT) programmes, the last of these having attracted considerable amounts of public funding by successive British governments. 2 A popular current view is that the problem is due to a lack of demand for vocational quali®cations by young people. 3 For some individuals, YT is a direct route to a wide range of intermediate level occupations, which provide training leading to the acquisition of certi®cated general transferable skills (hereafter`general training').

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