Mathematic modelling of reliability, safety and risk indicators related to equipment elements existing at iron and steel enterprise

Abstract

This article describes mathematical modelling of reliability, safety and risk indicators related to load bearing structural elements. The number of this type of cranes used at a modern iron and steel enterprise constitutes more than half of the total number of cranes. Therefore, the concerned issue and the problems addressed in this case represent current interest. Due to the impossibility of conducting a laboratory or a full-scale experiment, a numerical experiment is conducted using model distribution. Benchmark data used for calculations and based on previous studies performed by the author and available statistical data about incidents and damages are systematized and proposed. Hypotheses about addition and multiplication of damages related to elements of the equipment under study are made. Modelling adequacy is observed when the experiment findings match with available data. Classification of incidents arising when metallurgical cranes are operated beyond the expiry of their warranty period is identified. These calculations and procedure develop the theory of structural risk analysis of complex technical systems and allow making correct engineering-related managerial decisions.

Probabilistic modeling of crack growth in large structures

“…The allowance for crack growth in various fracture models represents quite a critical issue related to structural risk analysis [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The triggering factors can include both technological defects and structural concentrators or material nonhomogeneities.…”