Mathematical Analysis of an Epidemic Model for COVID-19: How Important Is the People's Cautiousness Level for Eradication?

Yong, Benny; Owen, Livia; Hoseana, Jonathan

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2108.02489

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…the first three of which are taken from [2, Table 1], while the last one is the estimate we used in [23,Table 4].…”

Section: Methods and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we formulate precise, quantitative conditions warranting the enforcement of each level of PPKM in the province of DKI Jakarta. These conditions are expressed in terms of ranges of values of the disease's effective reproduction number (the expected number of susceptible individuals to whom a single infected individual transmits the disease [5,6,12]) and the hospitals' bed-occupancy rate (the number of hospitalised COVID-19 cases per isolation bed [19]), using the following mathematical model which we recently developed [23]:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Design of Governmental Policies for the Eradication of COVID-19 in Jakarta Using an SIR-Type Mathematical Model

Yong¹,

Hoseana²,

Owen³

2021

Preprint

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Using a discretised version of our recently-developed SIR-type mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19, we construct a design of governmental policies for the eradication of the disease in the province of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia, taking as a basis the actual data of mid-2021. The design takes the form of a precise, quantitative method to determine the appropriate level(s) of restrictions on community activities (PPKM) which should be enforced in the province on any given day, based on the current values of the disease's effective reproduction number and the hospitals' bed-occupancy rate.

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“…the first three of which are taken from [2, Table 1], while the last one is the estimate we used in [23,Table 4].…”

Section: Methods and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Design of Governmental Policies for the Eradication of COVID-19 in Jakarta Using an SIR-Type Mathematical Model

Yong¹,

Hoseana²,

Owen³

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…At the start of the omicron wave, the government has, in addition, looked into providing citizens with antiviral medicines, securing 400,000 tablets of molnupiravir [41]. In [52], we have constructed a SIR-type mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia, which incorporates -among others-a parameter measuring the aforementioned hospitals' bed-occupancy rate. We have also used this model to design a quantitative method for determining the appropriate level(s) of social restrictions to be enforced in Jakarta at any…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Pandemic to a New Normal: Strategies to Optimise Governmental Interventions in Indonesia Based on an SVEIQHR-Type Mathematical Model

Yong¹,

Hoseana²,

Owen³

2022

Preprint

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There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments. In this paper, we construct an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model for the disease's spread in the country, which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions, as well as the vaccine's efficacy. We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number. Using the model, we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact. The results show that, in a disease-free state, when the number of new cases rises, the best strategy is to implement social restrictions, whereas in an endemic state, if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable, carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy; however, efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate, but towards the use of high-efficacy vaccines.

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Mathematical Analysis of an Epidemic Model for COVID-19: How Important Is the People's Cautiousness Level for Eradication?

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

A Design of Governmental Policies for the Eradication of COVID-19 in Jakarta Using an SIR-Type Mathematical Model

A Design of Governmental Policies for the Eradication of COVID-19 in Jakarta Using an SIR-Type Mathematical Model

From Pandemic to a New Normal: Strategies to Optimise Governmental Interventions in Indonesia Based on an SVEIQHR-Type Mathematical Model

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