Mathematical Analysis of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) Delay Pandemic Model

Abstract

In this manuscript, the mathematical analysis of corona virus model with time delay effect is studied. Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has substantial role in the different disciplines such as biological, engineering, physical, social, behavioural problems and many more. Most of infectious diseases are dreadful such as HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis and 2019-nCov. Unfortunately, due to the non-availability of vaccine for 2019-nCov around the world, the delay factors like, social distancing, quarantine, travel restrictions, holidays extension, hospitalization and isolation are used as key tools to control the pandemic of 2019-nCov. We have analysed the reproduction number 𝐑𝐑 𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧 of delayed model. Two key strategies from the reproduction number of 2019-nCov model, may be followed, according to the nature of the disease as if it is diminished or present in the community. The more delaying tactics eventually, led to the control of pandemic. Local and global stability of 2019-nCov model is presented for the strategies. We have also investigated the effect of delay factor on reproduction number 𝐑𝐑 𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧𝐧 . Finally, some very useful numerical results are presented to support the theoretical analysis of the model.

Applying fixed point methods and fractional operators in the modelling of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2

“…Any traditional discussions indicate that literature on this topic may infer that the concept of F -contraction is a typical generalization of the Banach contraction principle as a consequence of the uniqueness. For a extensive study on fixed points, F -contraction and fractionals the reader may refer [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] , [34] .…”

SEIR epidemic model for COVID-19 transmission by Caputo derivative of fractional order

“…In recent years, many papers have been published on the subject of Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative (see, for example, [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]). Mathematical models are used to simulate the transmission of coronavirus (see, for example, [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]).…”

Numerical study of fractional order COVID-19 pandemic transmission model in context of ABO blood group

“…It has been investigated in several scientific papers in the literature that the generalization of the mathematical integer order systems by fractional derivative models the natural manner in a very formal technique for instance in the method suggested in [19] by Akbari et al, in [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [16] by Etemad et al, in [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] , [34] , [35] by Baleanu et al, in [36] , [37] by and in [38] by Talaee et al Latterly, several researchers have been issued on the concept of fractional derivative operator called “ Caputo-Fabrizio operator ” (see for instance, [39] , [40] , [41] , [42] , [43] , [44] , [45] , [46] , [47] , [48] ). Different mathematical paradigms are utilized for simulating COVID-19 transition (see for instance, [49] , [50] , [51] , [52] , [53] , [54] , [55] ). More information and applications of fractional calculus can be found in [56] , [57] , [58] , [59] .…”