Mathematical foundations of event trees

Papazoglou, Ioannis A.

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(98)00010-6

Cited by 71 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Each block relates to a component, a set of components or a part of a component of the system, regardless of physical conventions and according to the choices in the system modeling. e basic de�nitions are taken from Papazoglou [9,10] where the blocks were interconnected to form functional block diagrams. In the present work, the blocks are stripped of their networking functionalities, and the de�nitions are simpli�ed accordingly.…”

Section: � �Asi� System �E�nitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Heuristic Methodology for Efficient Reduction of Large Multistate Event Trees

Marcoulaki

2013

Journal of Quality and Reliability Engineering

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is work proposes a new methodology for the management of event tree information used in the quantitative risk assessment of complex systems. e size of event trees increases exponentially with the number of system components and the number of states that each component can be found in. eir reduction to a manageable set of events can facilitate risk quanti�cation and safety optimization tasks. e proposed method launches a deductive exploitation of the event space, to generate reduced event trees for large multistate systems. e approach consists in the simultaneous treatment of large subsets of the tree, rather than focusing on the given single components of the system and getting trapped into guesses on their structural arrangement.

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Section: � �Asi� System �E�nitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, there might be more than one event that leads to system failure. In event trees, a complete joint event and its associated outcome are equivalent to a path [9,10].…”

Section: Event Space Subspaces and Event Partitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Heuristic Methodology for Efficient Reduction of Large Multistate Event Trees

Marcoulaki

2013

Journal of Quality and Reliability Engineering

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“…The event tree analysis is a method used to represent potential accident sequences or scenarios associated with a particular undesired initiating event (Papazoglou, 1998;Swaminathan & Smidts, 1999;PRA NASA Guide, 2002). The initiating event is an event, which may lead to the accident consequences.…”

Section: Event Tree Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Čepin¹

2010

Nuclear Power

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“…The definition of risk mitigation in terms of cut sets is not original because it has been introduced in relation with fault tree (Nasser 1997, Papazoglou 1998, Rauzy 2001, Tang&Dugan 2004, Vesely 1981. Given a fault tree, a cut set includes the failures to be avoided to prevent the top event.…”

Section: Risk Mitigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hierarchical, model-based risk management of critical infrastructures

Baiardi

Telmon

Sgandurra

2009

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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Risk management is a process that includes several steps, from vulnerability analysis to the formulation of a risk mitigation plan that selects countermeasures to be adopted. With reference to an information infrastructure, we present a risk management strategy that considers a sequence of hierarchical models, each describing dependencies among infrastructure components. A dependency exists any time a security related attribute of a component depends upon the attributes of other components. We discuss how this notion supports the formal definition of risk mitigation plan and the evaluation of the infrastructure robustness. A hierarchical relation exists among models that are analyzed because each model increases the level of details of some components in a previous one. Since components and dependencies are modeled through a hypergraph, to increase the model detail level, some hypergraph nodes are replaced by more and more detailed hypergraphs. We show how critical information for the assessment can be automatically deduced from the hypergraph and define conditions that determine cases where a hierarchical decomposition simplifies the assessment. In these cases, the assessment has to analyze the hypergraph that replaces the component rather than applying again all the analyses to a more detailed, and hence larger, hypergraph. We also show how the proposed framework supports the definition of a risk mitigation plan and discuss some indicators of the overall infrastructure robustness. Lastly, the development of tools to support the assessment is discussed.

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Mathematical foundations of event trees

Cited by 71 publications

References 3 publications

A Heuristic Methodology for Efficient Reduction of Large Multistate Event Trees

A Heuristic Methodology for Efficient Reduction of Large Multistate Event Trees

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Hierarchical, model-based risk management of critical infrastructures

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