Mathematical model for forecasting the process of electric power generation by photoelectric stations

Abstract

Purpose. Improving the efficiency of photovoltaic power plants in power systems by creating a model for forecasting the amount of electricity produced in the form of a harmonic function and determining the prospects for using the selected mathematical software to develop software applications. Methodology. To determine the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic plants per day and year, statistical methods are applied using the harmonic function which allows taking into account the main meteorological factors of power change of photomodules. A technique is proposed for taking into account the level of generation by photovoltaic stations to track changes in voltage levels in the connection nodes. Findings. Mathematical models for forecasting the electricity generation of photovoltaic stations for different time ranges are built. The influence of weather factors, the length of daylight and the structure of the local generation system on the level of electricity generated by photovoltaic plants is investigated. Necessity is conditioned to use a harmonic function for forecasting the amount of electricity produced, which improves the efficiency of calculations for new and existing power plants. Originality. The factors of the influence of daylight hours and cloudiness on the level of electricity generation by photovoltaic stations are taken into account, as well as meteorological data that make it possible to predict the value of the amount of electricity generated for a certain period of time. The dependences of the amount of generated electricity by photovoltaic stations are obtained in the form of a harmonious function with reference to a coefficient that takes into account the cloud level for predicting generation volumes. Practical value. Created mathematical models of forecasting by means of harmonic function and analysis of voltage change in nodes of local networks allow increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic stations, simplify calculation of change of levels of voltages in a electric network, the forecasted values of the generated electric power on the day ahead system on the basis of duration of the light day, meteorological data and other external factors at commissioning of photovoltaic stations.

Una revisión del desarrollo de los modelos matemáticos para la estimación de la potencia eléctrica generada en un sistema fotovoltaico

“…Batsala Y. presenta en su investigación el desarrollo de un modelo de delo de promedio móvil integrado autorregresivo denominado ARIMA, el cual es utilizado para la predicción de energía disponible en una estación fotovoltaica, el modelo utiliza valores anteriores para iniciar el proceso aleatorio discreto, que consiste en la operación mediante ecuaciones matemáticas para establecer una serie lineal y establecer el error de estimación, a partir de datos meteorológicos (Elvira-Ortiz et al, 2020). Este modelo es utilizado en sistemas fotovoltaicos y considera datos estadísticos de años anteriores, su precisión depende del aumento de número de horas y la calidad de datos meteorológicos utilizados (Batsala et al, 2021).…”

“…Para evaluar los resultados se realizaron mediciones durante un año y se compararon los valores proyectados por el modelo y los valores reales en donde se obtuvo mejores resultados con las celdas monocristalinas, con los datos se realizó la curva de densidad de corriente y voltaje que se obtuvo en el lugar de medición (Eraso et al, 2019). Por medio de este estudio se determinó que los sistemas que mejores resultados dieron son monocristalinos y policristalinos (Batsala et al, 2021).…”