Mathematical Model of Basal Stem Rot (BSR) Disease Spread in Oil Palm Plants

Abstract

This study discusses the stability analysis of mathematical models for the spread of Basar Stem Rot(BSR) in oil palm plants. In developing this mathematical model, several assumptions are taken to obtain a model that is suitable for the spread of BSR disease. The resulting model is a system of first-order nonlinear differential equations with three variables. This research includes both analytical and numerical analysis. Analytical analysis includes determination of equilibrium points and local stability analysis, while numerical analysis is conducted using Microsoft Excel application. From this study, two equilibrium points were found with stability conditions that depend on the fulfillment of certain conditions. One important result obtained is that the equilibrium point will be locally stable if and only if α > μ and b > √D, where D is the discriminant of a quadratic equation. After analyzing analytically, the study continued with numerical simulations to illustrate and test the analytical results. Numerical results in the form of graphs show that the solution of the system is stable, which indicates that the disease will be endemic under certain conditions and time. This research provides a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the spread of BSR and the conditions that affect the stability of the spread of the disease. With this analysis, it is expected to contribute to efforts to control BSR disease in oil palm plants. In addition, this research also opens opportunities for the development of similar mathematical models for other plant diseases.