Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo-Brazil

Abstract

The objective of the current investigation was to produce a generalized computational model to predict consequences of various reopening scenarios on COVID-19 infections rates and available hospital resources in São Paulo -Brazil. We were able to use the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to fit both accumulated death data and corrected accumulated cases data associated with COVID-19 for both Brazil and the state of São Paulo.In addition, we were able to simulate the consequences of reopening under different possible scenarios in Brazil, in special for the state of São Paulo. The model was able to provide a predicted scenario in which reopening could occur with minimal impact on human life considering people careful behavior in combination with continued social distancing measures.

COVID-19 in Latin America: Contrasting phylodynamic inference with epidemiological surveillance. (Molecular epidemiology of COVID-19 in Latin America)

“…On the other hand, although our estimations of the percentage of population infected for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia significantly differ from modelled seroprevalence estimations for those countries, 21 our estimations of the percentage of undiagnosed infections are similar to those showed by seroprevalence studies. According to our results, at least the 96% of the infections in the analyzed countries (excluding Brazil) are not diagnosed, that agrees with serological community based studies in Hubei, China that suggests that 97% of infections might have gone undiagnosed during the epidemic, 22 and in Geneva, Switzerland that showed that for every confirmed case there were 11.6 infections in the community. 23…”

COVID-19 mortality and exposure to airborne PM2.5: A lag time correlation

“…Factors affecting mortality are widely discussed, including air quality, meteorological conditions (Rahman et al, 2021), travel habits (B. Wang et al, 2020) and social distance (Neto et al, 2021). Among them, air quality and meteorological conditions are relatively uncontrollable factors.…”

Coronavirus Disease Pandemic Is a Real Challenge for Brazil

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