Mathematical modeling and optimal intervention of COVID‐19 outbreak

Biswas, Saroj; Ahmed, Nasir

doi:10.15302/j-qb-020-0229

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Further, if a 30% more transmissible variant emerges, then vaccine effectiveness needs to be above 50% to prevent a major resurge of the epidemic. Our study narrows the gap of reality and simulation after considering mass vaccination and emerging COVID-19 variants based on previous publications (33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Zou

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US.Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration.Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks.Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Zou

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Optimal Control of Multi-Time Lag COVID-19 Model

Gao,

2023

Proceedings of the 2023 4th International Symposium on Artificial Intelligence for Medicine Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dynamics analysis and optimal control of delayed SEIR model in COVID-19 epidemic

Liu,

Gao,

Kanesan

2024

J Inequal Appl

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains serious around the world and causes huge deaths and economic losses. Understanding the transmission dynamics of diseases and providing effective control strategies play important roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. In this paper, to investigate the effect of delays on the transmission of COVID-19, we propose a delayed SEIR model to describe COVID-19 virus transmission, where two delays indicating the incubation and recovery periods are introduced. For this system, we prove its solutions are nonnegative and ultimately bounded with the nonnegative initial conditions. Furthermore, we calculate the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points and analyze the asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at these equilibrium points. Then, by taking the weighted sum of the opposite number of recovered individuals at the terminal time, the number of exposed and infected individuals during the time horizon, and the system cost of control measures as the cost function, we present a delay optimal control problem, where two controls represent the social contact and the pharmaceutical intervention. Necessary optimality conditions of this optimal control problem are exploited to characterize the optimal control strategies. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to verify the theoretical analysis of the stability and Hopf bifurcations at the equilibrium points and to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained optimal strategies in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic.

show abstract

Mathematical modeling and optimal intervention of COVID‐19 outbreak

Cited by 3 publications

References 43 publications

Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Optimal Control of Multi-Time Lag COVID-19 Model

Dynamics analysis and optimal control of delayed SEIR model in COVID-19 epidemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About