Mathematical modeling for COVID-19 with focus on intervention strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract

The realistic assessments of public health intervention strategies are of great significance to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic and the formation of intervention policy. In this paper, an extended COVID-19 epidemic model is devised to assess the severity of the pandemic and explore effective control strategies. The model is characterized by ordinary differential equations with seven-state variables, and it incorporates some parameters associated with the interventions (i.e., media publicity, home isolation, vaccination and face-mask wearing) to investigate the impacts of these interventions on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Some dynamic behaviors of the model, such as forward and backward bifurcation, are analyzed. Specifically, we calibrate the model parameters using actual COVID-19 infected data in Brazil by Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm such that we can study the effects of interventions on a practical case. Through a comprehensive exploration of model design and analysis, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, implementation of optimal control problems and cost-effectiveness analysis, the rationality of our model is verified, and the effective strategies to combat the epidemic in Brazil are revealed. The results show that the asymptomatic infected individuals are the main drivers of COVID-19 transmission, and rapid detection of asymptomatic infections is critical to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. Interestingly, the effect of the vaccination rate associated with pharmaceutical intervention on the basic reproduction number is much lower than that of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our study also highlights the importance of media publicity. To reduce the infected individuals, the multi-pronged NPIs have considerable positive effects on controlling the outbreak of COVID-19. The infections are significantly decreased by the early implementation of media publicity complemented with home isolation and face-mask wearing strategy. When the cost of implementation is taken into account, the early implementation of media publicity complemented with a face-mask wearing strategy can significantly mitigate the second wave of the epidemic in Brazil. These results provide some management implications for controlling COVID-19.

Cost-effectiveness of mask mandates on subways to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

“…Our findings align with previous studies conducted in different contexts, settings, and countries, providing further evidence supporting the use of face masks in public settings to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission from a cost-effectiveness perspective [16][17][18][19][20]. Notably, two computational modeling studies conducted in the United States have contributed valuable insights.…”

“…However, despite several economic evaluations of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19, only a limited number of studies included public mask wearing as a component of their research [14,15]. These studies have primarily examined broader community contexts [16], college campuses [17], or other countries [18][19][20]. We found no studies that specifically investigated the cost-effectiveness of mask mandates in the context of public transportation conveyances.…”

Pattern formation in reaction-diffusion information propagation model on multiplex simplicial complexes

“…Although the research background is different, there are strong similarities between the spread of disease and the spread of information from a mathematical point of view. Therefore, some classical dynamic models, such as the Suspicious-Infected (SI), Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) models, which are used to describe the dynamic process of epidemic transmission [5][6][7][8][9][10], have been applied to rumor transmission. Specifically, these studies are mostly based on ordinary differential equation models to study the propagation thresholds, global dynamics, control strategies, and the possible occurrence of complex bifurcation phenomena, such as forward bifurcation, backward bifurcation, and Hopf bifurcation [11][12][13][14].…”

An SEQAIHR model to study COVID-19 transmission and optimal control strategies in Hong Kong, 2022

“…To study transmission dynamics and control strategies for COVID-19 in India, Mondal and Khajanchi [ 15 ] proposed an SAIQJR model. Authors divided susceptible populations into two classes, namely conscious and unconscious susceptibles in [ 16 ]. They also considered asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized and recovered population to frame out a COVID-19 model.…”