Mathematical Modeling for Prediction Dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic, Quarantine Control Measures

Prathumwan, Din; Trachoo, Kamonchat; Chaiya, Inthira

doi:10.3390/sym12091404

Cited by 28 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In this section, we carried out a sensitivity analysis [31,32] test of the effect of the parameters on the basic reproduction number R 0 to ascertain the impact of these parameters on dengue transmission.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of a Vaccination against the Dengue Fever Epidemic in an Age Structure Population: From the Perspective of the Local and Global Stability Analysis

et al. 2022

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The effect of vaccination on the dengue fever epidemic described by an age structured modified SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Retired) model is studied using standard stability analysis. The chimeric yellow fever dengue tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV™) is a vaccine recently developed to control this epidemic in several Southeast Asian countries. The dengue vaccination program requires a total of three injections, 6 months apart at 0, 6, and 12 months. The ages of the recipients are nine years and above. In this paper, we analyze the mathematical dynamics SIR transmission model of the epidemic. The stability of the model is established using Routh–Hurwitz criteria to see if a Hopf Bifurcation occurs and see when the equilibrium states are local asymptotically stable or global asymptotically stable. We have determined the efficiency of CYD-TDV by simulating the optimal numerical solution for each age range for this model. The numerical results showed the optimal age for vaccination and significantly reduced the severity and severity of the disease.

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Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basic reproduction number in order to control the spread of dengue disease transmission model is given by Equation (32). The sensitivity index of Equation ( 69) can now be used to evaluate the index of each parameter.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of a Vaccination against the Dengue Fever Epidemic in an Age Structure Population: From the Perspective of the Local and Global Stability Analysis

et al. 2022

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“…In 2021, Daniel investigated the SEIQCRW model on COVID diffusion with irregular factors of illness and the need for safety practices in Nigeria [ 7 ]. For estimation dynamics of the coronavirus disorder 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, isolation security controls, Prathumwan et al proposed a SLIQHR model in 2020 [ 8 ]. In 2021, Balike investigated the SEIHQR model for reducing the economic impacts of the COVID in the Congo [ 9 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: a study of third strain

et al. 2022

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Countries affected by the coronavirus epidemic have reported many infected cases and deaths based on world health statistics. The crowding factor, which we named "crowding effects," plays a significant role in spreading the diseases. However, the introduction of vaccines marks a turning point in the rate of spread of coronavirus infections. Modeling both effects is vastly essential as it directly impacts the overall population of the studied region. To determine the peak of the infection curve by considering the third strain, we develop a mathematical model (susceptible–infected–vaccinated–recovered) with reported cases from August 01, 2021, till August 29, 2021. The nonlinear incidence rate with the inclusion of both effects is the best approach to analyze the dynamics. The model's positivity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness, and stability (local and global) are addressed with the help of a reproduction number. In addition, the strength number and second derivative Lyapunov analysis are examined, and the model was found to be asymptotically stable. The suggested parameters efficiently control the active cases of the third strain in Pakistan. It was shown that a systematic vaccination program regulates the infection rate. However, the crowding effect reduces the impact of vaccination. The present results show that the model can be applied to other countries' data to predict the infection rate.

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“…This process contributes to the slowing but not a complete cessation of the spread. However, vaccination is being initiated in order to combat COVID- 19.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multicompartment mathematical model to study the dynamic behaviour of COVID-19 using vaccination as control parameter

Kurmi

Chouhan

2022

Nonlinear Dyn

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To analyse novel coronavirus disease transmission in India, this article provides an extended SEIR multicompartment model using vaccination as a control parameter. The model considers eight classes of infection: susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), exposed (E), asymptomatic infected (A), symptomatic infected (I), isolated (J ), hospitalised (H), recovered (R). To begin, a mathematical study is performed to demonstrate the suggested model's uniform boundedness, epidemic equilibrium, and basic reproduction number. The findings indicate that if, R 0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; but, if, R 0 > 1 the equilibrium is unstable. Secondly, we examine the effect on those who have received vaccinations with what are deemed optimal values. The suggested model is numerically simulated using MATLAB 14.0, and the results confirm the capacity of the proposed model to provide an accurate forecast of the progress of the epidemic in India. Finally, we examine the impact of immunisation on COVID-19 dissemination.

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Mathematical Modeling for Prediction Dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic, Quarantine Control Measures

Cited by 28 publications

References 36 publications

Effect of a Vaccination against the Dengue Fever Epidemic in an Age Structure Population: From the Perspective of the Local and Global Stability Analysis

Effect of a Vaccination against the Dengue Fever Epidemic in an Age Structure Population: From the Perspective of the Local and Global Stability Analysis

Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: a study of third strain

A multicompartment mathematical model to study the dynamic behaviour of COVID-19 using vaccination as control parameter

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