Mathematical modeling of mpox: A scoping review

Molla, Jeta; Sekkak, Idriss; Mundo, Ariel I.; Moyles, Iain; Nasri, Bouchra

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100540

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Mathematical modelling has become a useful tool for understanding the spread and transmission of infectious diseases such as mpox. 1 In recent years, there has been a growing body of literature on the mathematical modelling of mpox. The first studies on the mathematical modelling of mpox focused on understanding the basic dynamics of the disease.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

Iftikhar,

Daniyal,

Qureshi

et al. 2023

DIGITAL HEALTH

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Objectives The rising of new cases and death counts from the mpox virus (MPV) is alarming. In order to mitigate the impact of the MPV it is essential to have information of the virus's future position using more precise time series and stochastic models. In this present study, a hybrid forecasting system has been developed for new cases and death counts for MPV infection using the world daily cumulative confirmed and death series. Methods The original cumulative series was decomposed into new two subseries, such as a trend component and a stochastic series using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. To assess the efficacy of the proposed models, a comparative analysis with several widely recognized benchmark models, including auto-regressive (AR) model, auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model, non-parametric auto-regressive (NPAR) model and artificial neural network (ANN), was performed. Results The introduction of two novel hybrid models, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], which demonstrated superior performance compared to all other models, as evidenced by their remarkable results in key performance indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), is a significant advancement in disease prediction. Conclusion The new models developed can be implemented in forecasting other diseases in the future. To address the current situation effectively, governments and stakeholders must implement significant changes to ensure strict adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) by the public. Given the anticipated continuation of increasing trends in the coming days, these measures are essential for mitigating the impact of the outbreak.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

Iftikhar,

Daniyal,

Qureshi

et al. 2023

DIGITAL HEALTH

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“…Our approach is novel in that we are not aware of other ABMs that address mpox spread among MSMs. ABMs can be relatively more flexible and naturalistic compared to other modelling approaches 46 , explicitly incorporating heterogeneity of agent attributes and behaviour choices 47 . ABMs are designed to reveal emergent phenomena 46 and thus may provide novel insights to epidemic dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used published information to construct all of the control scenarios, two of the scenarios emulated published data about partner count reductions and vaccination delivery. These ABM advantages come with a price in that they are computationally exhaustive 47 and with our software platform, meant that the agent population needed to be restricted (to 6400 agents) to generate many strategy and scenario outcomes in a reasonable timeframe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of three control strategies to limit mpox outbreaks in an agent based model

Brainard,

Lake,

Hunter

2024

Preprint

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Most of the 2022 mpox outbreaks in high income countries, which predominantly affected men who have sex with men, peaked less than two months after detection. To stop the outbreaks, people were encouraged to limit new sex partners, take up any offers for smallpox vaccination, and self-isolate. The relative contributions of each of these strategies to outbreak reduction are hard to know. To consider the potential relative efficacy of each of these measures individually, we constructed agent-based models using plausible partnership counts, reasonable behaviour choices and published information about smallpox vaccination uptake rates in the UK context during 2022. Compared to a baseline, no intervention scenario, partner reduction was more effective at preventing generation of secondary cases than the vaccine rollout at the speed that the smallpox vaccine rollout occurred in the UK in 2022. These findings suggest that partner reduction by the most affected community rather than pharmaceutical intervention was largely to credit for causing case numbers to peak as early as they did.

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“…To estimate the development of Mpox epidemic and to design appropriate control measures, it is essential to understand the dynamics of Mpox transmission in mainland China. Since the 2022 Mpox outbreaks in several countries, a variety of quantitative models, including compartment models, branching process models, agent‐based models, network models, and logistic model, have been used to characterize the transmission of Mpox in Europe, America, and other areas 5–8 . These models contained assumptions about the transmission of Mpox with varying degrees of complexity and could therefore be useful in estimating transmission‐related quantities such as the effective reproduction number (denoted as R e ) at different scales or under different conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China

Zhang,

Zhou

2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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Starting from May 31, 2023, the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been explored. Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first 3 weeks of Beijing (from May 31 to June 21, 2023), we employed the instant‐individual heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the effective reproduction number (Re) and the degree of heterogeneity (k) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to November and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission dynamics. We estimated Re to be 1.68 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1.12−2.41), and k to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54−83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was supercritical and didn't have considerable transmission heterogeneity. We projected that Re fell in the range of 0.95−1.0 from July to November, highlighting more efforts needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results could serve as a reference for understanding and predicting the ongoing Mpox transmission in other regions of China and evaluating the effect of control measures.

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Mathematical modeling of mpox: A scoping review

Cited by 11 publications

References 41 publications

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

Evaluation of three control strategies to limit mpox outbreaks in an agent based model

Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China

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