2021
DOI: 10.3390/v13101921
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Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine clinical trials assess efficacy against disease (VEDIS), the ability to block symptomatic COVID-19. They only partially discriminate whether VEDIS is mediated by preventing infection completely, which is defined as detection of virus in the airways (VESUSC), or by preventing symptoms despite infection (VESYMP). Vaccine efficacy against transmissibility given infection (VEINF), the decrease in secondary transmissions from infected vaccine recipients, is also not measured. Using mathematical m… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(11 citation statements)
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References 79 publications
(105 reference statements)
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“…We adapted a deterministic compartment model, developed and iteratively improved by our team, which describes the epidemic dynamics in King County, Washington, USA [ 28 , 30 32 ]. Our model ( Figure 1A and Figure S1 ) stratifies the population by age (0–19 years, 20–49 years, 50–69 years, and 70+ years), infection status (susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic mild, symptomatic severe), clinical status (undiagnosed, diagnosed, hospitalized), immunity (susceptible, vaccinated, recovered from natural infection), and infecting strain (original, Alpha, Delta).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…We adapted a deterministic compartment model, developed and iteratively improved by our team, which describes the epidemic dynamics in King County, Washington, USA [ 28 , 30 32 ]. Our model ( Figure 1A and Figure S1 ) stratifies the population by age (0–19 years, 20–49 years, 50–69 years, and 70+ years), infection status (susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic mild, symptomatic severe), clinical status (undiagnosed, diagnosed, hospitalized), immunity (susceptible, vaccinated, recovered from natural infection), and infecting strain (original, Alpha, Delta).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We implemented reactive social distancing (SD) allowing numbers of cases and hospitalizations to fluctuate due to the community response to the epidemic [ 36 ]. We used intermediate range of contact reduction, more than pre-pandemic levels but less than a full lockdown [ 28 , 30 32 ].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The completeness of protection given by vaccination is also an important factor for achieving herd immunity. For reliable protection of a whole population, the number of people who must be vaccinated increases with decreasing efficacy of vaccines, which can be clearly demonstrated by mathematical modeling [15]. Simulations show that a vaccine efficacy of more than 70% is required for achieving herd immunity, but vaccination of 66% of a population is sufficient if the vaccine efficacy is above 90% [16].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…While many useful models focus on modeling epidemiological dynamics and answering questions about population-level effects of interventions such as vaccination and treatment ( c.f. Diagne et al, 2021 , Swan et al, 2021 ), our interest is in addressing questions about protective immunity within a vaccinated individual. Some excellent within-host mathematical models have been developed to focus on a variety of questions about response to virus, treatment, and vaccination.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%