Mathematical temporal prediction of CD4+ lymphocytes in HIV/AIDS patients in antiretroviral treatment

Abstract

Background: The measurement of CD4 + lymphocyte count through flow cytometry, is necessary for the following up of HIV-infected patients in antiretroviral therapy, however, populations in low-income countries are limited to this test. For this, values of leukocytes and CD4 + lymphocytes counts greater than 500, between 200 and 500 and lesser than 200 cells were taken from 250 HIV-infected individuals in sequential dates up to three years. Then, temporal series of 12 prototypical patients were analyzed in search of predictive patterns between CD4 + lymphocytes and leukocytes, and then, these patterns were applied with the remaining data in a blind study in order to calculate the probability of success of the methodology for each range and its combinations, as well as sensitivity and specificity values.Results: Five patterns with predictive percentages greater than 99% were found for the distinct conditions of the methodology, with sensitivity and specificity values of 99%.Conclusions: A predictive theoretical simplification was achieved between leukocytes counts and CD4 + lymphocytes. This method could be useful to improve the surveillance and survival of HIV-infected individuals in low-income countries where flow cytometry cannot be afforded.