Matrilineal phylogeny and habitat suitability of the endangered spotted pond turtle (Geoclemys hamiltonii; Testudines: Geoemydidae): a two-dimensional approach to forecasting future conservation consequences

Abstract

The spotted pond turtle (Geoclemys hamiltonii) is a threatened and less explored species endemic to Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. To infer structural variation and matrilineal phylogenetic interpretation, the present research decoded the mitogenome of G. hamiltonii (16,509 bp) using next-generation sequencing technology. The mitogenome comprises 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer RNAs (tRNAs), two ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs), and one AT-rich control region (CR) with similar strand symmetry in vertebrates. The ATG was identified as a start codon in most of the PCGs except Cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1), which started with the GTG codon. The non-coding CR of G. hamiltonii was determined to have a unique structure and variation in different domains and stem-loop secondary structure as compared with other Batagurinae species. The PCGs-based Bayesian phylogeny inferred strong monophyletic support for all Batagurinae species and confirmed the sister relationship of G. hamiltonii with Pangshura and Batagur taxa. We recommend generating more mitogenomic data for other Batagurinae species to confirm their population structure and evolutionary relationships. In addition, the present study aims to infer the habitat suitability and habitat quality of G. hamiltonii in its global distribution, both in the present and future climatic scenarios. We identify that only 58,542 km2 (7.16%) of the total range extent (817,341 km2) is suitable for this species, along with the fragmented habitats in both the eastern and western ranges. Comparative habitat quality assessment suggests the level of patch shape in the western range is higher (71.3%) compared to the eastern range. Our results suggest a massive decline of approximately 65.73% to 70.31% and 70.53% to 75.30% under ssp245 and ssp585 future scenarios, respectively, for the years between 2021–2040 and 2061–2080 compared with the current distribution. The present study indicates that proper conservation management requires greater attention to the causes and solutions to the fragmented distribution and safeguarding of this endangered species in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios

“…Model evaluation relied on the area under the curve statistics (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve [ 56 ]. AUC test values ranging from 0 to 1 were interpreted, where values below 0.5 indicated deficient power, 0.5 suggested random prediction, 0.7–0.8 were considered acceptable, 0.8–0.9 deemed excellent, and >0.9 regarded as exceptional model performance [ 40 , 57 , 58 ]. Furthermore, the true skill statistic (TSS) score for the present model was assessed for validation [ 59 ].…”

“…This allows for a more detailed characterization of landscape attributes and enables a comprehensive analysis throughout the distribution range of the species [ 61 ]. They were utilized as indicators to assess habitat characteristics and the degree of fragmentation in the modeled area under current and climate change scenarios [ 40 ]. A qualitative evaluation of the habitat ranges was conducted by calculating zonal statistics within the boundaries of protected areas (PAs) across their distribution range in present and future scenarios [ 62 ].…”

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for assessing the likelihood of species occurrence within specific geographic areas, providing essential information for habitat management and conservation initiatives [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ]. In recent years, the integration of ecophysiological models has been crucial in SDM projections for various vertebrate species, aiding in understanding range shifts in response to climate change [ 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 ]. Therefore, adaptive management strategies that consider uncertain future scenarios are vital for ensuring the resilience of C. hispidus to climate change across its distribution range.…”