MaxEnt-based prediction of the potential invasion of Lantana camara L. under climate change scenarios in Arunachal Pradesh, India

Bushi, Dhoni; Mahato, Ranjit; Nimasow, Oyi Dai; Nimasow, Gibji

doi:10.1016/j.chnaes.2022.08.004

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Most birds had high contributions from the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), implying that the potential distributions, and thus the abiotic niches of our species, are impacted by a combination of temperature and precipitation conditions. Bio8 has previously shown high contributions to potential distributions of many Himalayan and Indo-Burman species such as the medicinal plants of Liliaceae family (Rana et al, 2017), the native pheasant-Himalayan Monal Lophophorus impejanus (Rai et al, 2020), the invasive Lantana camara L. (Bushi et al, 2022), the threatened orchid Satyrium nepalense (Kumar and Rawat, 2022), the Crayfish Cherax quadricarinatus and Procambarus virginalis (Zeng and Yeo, 2018), and the falcon Falco jugger (Sutton et al, 2020). Thus, several species of this region may be expected to track their thermal as well as hygric niches, which may lead to complex patterns of directions of range shifts or distribution changes in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecology and not phylogeny influences sensitivity to climate change in Muscicapidae Flycatchers in Eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman hotspots

Dhanda,

Jezierski,

Coulson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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AimsSpecies’ distributional responses to climate change can depend on ecology and phylogeny. The degree of habitat specialism is potentially important because habitat generalists with wider distributions are assumed to be less sensitive to environmental changes compared to narrowly-distributed habitat specialists. Additionally, predicting which aspects of the changing climate impacts species with different habitat associations may be particularly challenging in complex environments such as those of tropical mountains. We explore the effects of climate change on potential distributions of Muscicapidae Flycatchers in parts of the Eastern Himalayan Mountains and the Indo-Burman range, and relate predictions to the level of ecological habitat specialism, while accounting for phylogenetic relatedness.LocationBhutan and Northeast IndiaMethodsWe used Maxent to develop ecological niche models of 60 Muscicapidae Flycatchers under different climatic scenarios by collating presences from Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Bioclimatic variables from WorldClim, and elevation from ASTER. Species were scored as habitat specialists or generalists using the Species Specialism Index. Variables with high contributions to Maxent models were extracted to explore sensitivity to climate change based on habitat specialism while testing for phylogenetic signal using Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares.ResultsMaxent models had the highest contributions from variable bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter) under present climate, and tmax (maximum temperature) under future climatic scenarios. Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares revealed that habitat generalists had higher sensitivity to climate change than specialists. We did not detect strong phylogenetic signal in sensitivity to abiotic variables under all climate scenarios.Main conclusionsPotential distributions of Muscicapidae Flycatchers were sensitive to temperature variable in the month of the highest precipitation, and to maximum temperature. Potential distributions of habitat generalists were particularly sensitive to these abiotic variables, and those of habitat specialists less so. Sensitivity to abiotic variables did not show a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism. climate change, Muscicapidae Flycatchers, phylogenetic niche conservatism, habitat specialism, tropical mountains, Maxent

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecology and not phylogeny influences sensitivity to climate change in Muscicapidae Flycatchers in Eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman hotspots

Dhanda,

Jezierski,

Coulson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…MaxEnt determines predicted species distributions through calculation of parameters with maximum entropy as a product of interactions between species and their environment [22]. MaxEnt and spatial analysis techniques have been used to predict the potential distribution of invasive plants such as Xanthium italicum [26], Alternanthera philoxeroides [27], Erigeron canadensis [28], Lantana camara [29], and many others. Many studies have confirmed the importance of MaxEnt model optimization, constrained by species distribution pattern, model conditions, validity of model assumptions and applicability of optimization measures, but model optimization may not necessarily improve the prediction ability [30][31][32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution and ecological impacts of Acmella radicans (Jacquin) R.K. Jansen (a new Yunnan invasive species record) in China

Shen,

Zheng,

Zhang

et al. 2024

BMC Plant Biol

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Background Acmella radicans (Jacquin) R.K. Jansen is a new invasive species record for Yunnan Province, China. Native to Central America, it has also been recently recorded invading other parts of Asia. To prevent this weed from becoming a serious issue, an assessment of its ecological impacts and potential distribution is needed. We predicted the potential distribution of A. radicans in China using the MaxEnt model and its ecological impacts on local plant communities and soil nutrients were explored. Results Simulated training using model parameters produced an area under curve value of 0.974, providing a high degree of confidence in model predictions. Environmental variables with the greatest predictive power were precipitation of wettest month, isothermality, topsoil TEB (total exchangeable bases), and precipitation seasonality, with a cumulative contribution of more than 72.70% and a cumulative permutation importance of more than 69.20%. The predicted potential suitable area of A. radicans in China is concentrated in the southern region. Projected areas of A. radicans ranked as high and moderately suitable comprised 5425 and 26,338 km2, accounting for 0.06 and 0.27% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. Over the 5 years of monitoring, the population density of A. radicans increased while at the same time the population density and importance values of most other plant species declined markedly. Community species richness, diversity, and evenness values significantly declined. Soil organic matter, total N, total P, available N, and available P concentrations decreased significantly with increasing plant cover of A. radicans, whereas pH, total K and available K increased. Conclusion Our study was the first to show that A. radicans is predicted to expand its range in China and may profoundly affect plant communities, species diversity, and the soil environment. Early warning and monitoring of A. radicans must be pursued with greater vigilance in southern China to prevent its further spread.

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“…Climate is a key factor in determining species distribution, especially for ectothermic animals such as insects, so it is regarded as the primary environmental variable in SDM studies 27–31 . The MaxEnt species distribution modeling technique has the advantage of requiring only species occurrence records and environmental variables, making it one of the most commonly used models 32–36 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[27][28][29][30][31] The MaxEnt species distribution modeling technique has the advantage of requiring only species occurrence records and environmental variables, making it one of the most commonly used models. [32][33][34][35][36] The application of host plant geographical distribution records to current and future climate conditions is potentially an effective way to improve simulations of host-pest distribution. This is because the distribution of species under natural conditions is not only affected by climate, but also by other abiotic factors (such as topography and altitude), as well as biological ones (such as natural enemies and host plants).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasion risks presented by Gonopsis affinis and the use of Trissolcus mitsukurii as a biological control agent under present and future climate conditions

Lian

Wei

Chen

et al. 2023

Pest Management Science

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BackgroundGonopsis affinis (Uhler) is a stinkbug that represents a significant threat to the production of rice (Oryza sativa L.), sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) and eulalia (Miscanthus sinensis (Andersson)), and has been listed as a sugarcane pest in Japan. Trissolcus mitsukurii Ashmead is an egg parasitoid of G. affinis. To determine the potential of T. mitsukurii to be a biological control agent for G. affinis, we aim to predict the current and future areas of suitable habitat for these two species and their overlap with areas of present crop production. We developed MaxEnt models using two different variable selection methods and compared the two for T. mitsukurii with a CLIMEX model.ResultsThe results showed extensive suitable areas for G. affinis under current climate conditions in East Asia, West Africa, Madagascar, and South America. These ranges overlap with areas currently being used for the production of the three crops in question. More than half overlap with areas of suitable habitat for T. mitsukurii. The most critical environmental variable determining habitat suitability for G. affinis was showed to be precipitation of warmest quarter, whilst for T. mitsukurii it was min temperature of the coldest month.ConclusionBased on our assessment we recommend the immediate implementation of monitoring and invasion prevention measures for G. affinis in southwest China, the Malay Archipelago and West Africa. We suggest that T. mitsukurii be considered for use as a biological control agent in East Asia, Madagascar, Florida and Brazil in the case of future invasions by G. affinis.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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MaxEnt-based prediction of the potential invasion of Lantana camara L. under climate change scenarios in Arunachal Pradesh, India

Cited by 6 publications

References 61 publications

Ecology and not phylogeny influences sensitivity to climate change in Muscicapidae Flycatchers in Eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman hotspots

Ecology and not phylogeny influences sensitivity to climate change in Muscicapidae Flycatchers in Eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman hotspots

Potential distribution and ecological impacts of Acmella radicans (Jacquin) R.K. Jansen (a new Yunnan invasive species record) in China

Invasion risks presented by Gonopsis affinis and the use of Trissolcus mitsukurii as a biological control agent under present and future climate conditions

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