MaxEnt modeling to predict current and future distributions of<i>Batocera lineolata</i>(Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change in China

Li, Ainan; Wang, Jiawen; Wang, Rulin; Yang, Hua; Yang, Wei; Yang, Chunping; Jin, Zhangdong

doi:10.1080/11956860.2019.1673604

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Northward (the Northern Hemisphere) and high-latitude expansion has been reported in many species of plants and insects [ 11 , 12 ]. Orr and Hämäläinen pointed out that Fujian, China, is the northernmost habitat of N. chinensis [ 2 ]; however, the modeling predicts that Shanghai, located in the north of Fujian, could also contain suitable habitats where species could occur under current climate conditions ( Figure 2 ), which need to be confirmed by further fieldwork.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that global warming is expected to continue with the average temperature of Earth increasing by 0.3–4.5 °C by 2100 compared with the 1986–2005 period [ 8 , 9 ]. Unlike the dramatic effects of extremely high or low temperature on insect physiology, the large-scale, long-term, and relatively mild environmental temperature change will result in insect distributions shifting to higher altitudes and latitudes [ 10 , 11 ]. For example, due to the increase in average temperature, forest insects such as Operophtera brumata (winter moth), Epirrita autumnata (autumnal moth), and Dendroctonus ponderosae (mountain pine beetle) extended their areas to higher latitudes and to the north [ 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

Liao

Wang

Xiao

et al. 2022

Biology

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Neurobasis chinensis is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the N. anderssoni, has not been observed for decades. To protect N. chinensis, it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie’s range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 106 km2. Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of N. chinensis will expand and shift northwards. Currently, N. chinensis mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of N. chinensis.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

Liao

Wang

Xiao

et al. 2022

Biology

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“…17,19,21,24,33,34,44,45 The overall results are expected to provide effective suggestions for pest management. 17,19,21,24,33,34,44,45 However, there may be uncertainties in changing trends of insect pest expansion. The presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in ecosystems based on percentage of leaf loss, and the amount of stunting and seedling death of their host species (Table 2; https://gardeningsolutions.ifas.ufl.edu/care/pests-anddiseases/pests/).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change

Wang

Chen

et al. 2021

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND: Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change.RESULTS: Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission scenarios. CONCLUSION:The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions.

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“…future distribution [ 78 ]. However, predictive models have been recently questioned since they do not take into account many factors (e.g., biotic interactions, evolutionary change, dispersal ability) that together with the climate are involved in determining the distribution of a species [ 74 , 79 ]. Furthermore, species distribution models that are based entirely on contemporary realized distributions are considered potentially misleading for previsions in a climate change context [ 80 ].…”

Section: Climatic Consequences On the Key Olive Pest Bactrocera Oleaementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the limits reported above, ME is one of the most popular predictive models since its simulation precision is greater than that of other niche models. Moreover, it has a short operation time, and it can also be used with small samples [ 79 ]. In general, the bioclimate predictive models can provide useful approximation about the impact of climate change on biodiversity and species distribution.…”

Section: Climatic Consequences On the Key Olive Pest Bactrocera Oleaementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Major Pests of Mediterranean Olive Orchards: Are We Ready to Face the Global Heating?

Caselli

Petacchi

2021

Insects

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Evidence of the impact of climate change on natural and agroecosystems is nowadays established worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean Basin, an area known to be very susceptible to heatwaves and drought. Olea europaea is one of the main income sources for the Mediterranean agroeconomy, and it is considered a sensitive indicator of the climate change degree because of the tight relationship between its biology and temperature trend. Despite the economic importance of the olive, few studies are nowadays available concerning the consequences that global heating may have on its major pests. Among the climatic parameters, temperature is the key one influencing the relation between the olive tree and its most threatening parasites, including Bactrocera oleae and Prays oleae. Therefore, several prediction models are based on this climatic parameter (e.g., cumulative degree day models). Even if the use of models could be a promising tool to improve pest control strategies and to safeguard the Mediterranean olive patrimony, they are not currently available for most O. europaea pests, and they have to be used considering their limits. This work stresses the lack of knowledge about the biology and the ethology of olive pests under a climate change scenario, inviting the scientific community to focus on the topic.

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MaxEnt modeling to predict current and future distributions ofBatocera lineolata(Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change in China

Cited by 32 publications

References 23 publications

Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

Modeling and Prediction of the Species’ Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change

Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change

Climate Change and Major Pests of Mediterranean Olive Orchards: Are We Ready to Face the Global Heating?

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