Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months implying that populations can mitigate the fertility cost of temperature shocks by shifting conception month. This dynamic adjustment helps explain the observed decline in birth rates during the spring and subsequent increase during the summer. The lack of a full rebound suggests that increased temperatures due to climate change may reduce population growth rates in the coming century. As an added cost, climate change will shift even more births to the summer months when third trimester exposure to dangerously high temperatures increases. Based on our analysis of historical changes in the temperature-fertility relationship, we conclude air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of climate change. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I EJEL Classification: I12, J13, Q54

Social and economic impacts of climate

“…For example, it has been shown that extreme heat reduces the number of children born exactly 9 months later but elevates births 11 to 13 months later, as some of the successful conceptions that would have occurred during the hot period, but did not, end up occurring in the near future (38). In these cases, where climatic events simply displace the timing of societal outcomes (a pattern illustrated in Fig.…”

“…(B) Tropical cyclones increase female infant deaths but with a delayed effect that grows rapidly roughly a year after exposure (49). (C) Birth rates in the United States fall 8 to 10 months after a hot day, but this decline is partially compensated for by an increase during months 11 to 13 (38). (D) GDP in countries exposed to tropical cyclones falls gradually but persistently during the 15 years following exposure (116 (48) and (B) effects of cyclones on GDP over time are most negative in countries with the lowest levels of historical experiencerank indicates quintile of exposure (116).Temperatureinduced mortality in the United States exhibits adaptation: (C) locations that have hotter long-run climates tend to have smaller effects (185) and (D) sensitivities have declined over time (43).…”

“…Birth rates are abnormally lower 9 months after extreme heat events in both sub-Saharan Africa (69) and the United States (38) (Fig. 4C), although identifying the mechanism driving this effect is challenging.…”

Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

“…This exploration is relevant because it could be the case that the negative economic effects of summer temperatures are diminished in the more recent part of the sample due to adaptation (for example, due to widespread adoption of air conditioning technologies as documented by Barreca et al (2015)). …”

“…This implies that the U.S. economy is still sensitive to temperature increases, despite the progressive adoption of adaptive technologies such as air conditioning (Barreca et al (2015)). We also document that the temperature effects are particularly strong in states with relatively higher summer temperatures, most of which are located in the South.…”