McArthur's fire‐danger meters expressed as equations

Noble, Ian; Gill, A. Malcolm; Bary, G. A. V.

doi:10.1111/j.1442-9993.1980.tb01243.x

Cited by 617 publications

(423 citation statements)

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“…Daily FFDI was calculated from the 12 member regional climate model 16 ensemble. We lack the curing data needed to calculate the related Grassland Fire Danger Index 17 (Noble et al 1980). Although the Forest and Grassland indices behave similarly, results in 18…”

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confidence: 99%

An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

et al. 2016

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We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production, simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha-1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha-1 in grassland areas and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha-1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, -186 to 1372 in grassland areas and -231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information is not directly available from climate model outputs. Disciplines Medicine and Health Sciences | Social and Behavioral Sciences Publication DetailsClarke, H., Pitman, A. J., Kala, J., Carouge, C., Haverd, V. & Evans, J. (2016). An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia. Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 139 (3), 591-605. AuthorsHamish Clarke, Andy Pitman, Jatin Kala, Claire C. We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of fire risk in 2 Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented by the McArthur 3 Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member regional climate model ensemble. 4Fuel load is predicted from net primary production, simulated using a land surface model forced by 5 the same regional climate model ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all 6 ensemble members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha -1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha -1 in grassland areas and 0.7 7 to 1.1 t ha -1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from 8 57 to 550 in temperate areas, -186 to 1372 in grassland areas and -231 to 907 in subtropical areas. 9These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI projections will be underestimated if only a single 10 driving model is used. The largest increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in 11 spring. Deriving fuel load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this 12 information is not directly available from climate model outputs. 13 14 3

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An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

et al. 2016

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“…The formulation of the FFDI (e.g. Noble et al, 1980) is based on the current day's maximum temperature (°C), T , the wind speed (km h −1 ), v, and relative humidity (%), RH, and a component representing fuel availability called the Drought Factor, DF, as shown in Equation (1):…”

Section: Overview Of the Forest Fire Danger Index (Ffdi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index

et al. 2009

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ABSTRACT:A number of different methodologies are developed for examining the sensitivities of an index. These methodologies are applied to examine the characteristics of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using 8 years of gridded data throughout Australia. Percentile changes in input conditions show that the indices are similar to each other in that they are both most sensitive to wind speed, then secondly to relative humidity and thirdly to temperature. On a finer scale, a combination of the relationship between the indices and their partial derivatives shows that the FFDI is relatively less sensitive to wind speed and rainfall, and more sensitive to temperature and relative humidity, than the FWI. A method based on equilibrium values of the indices shows that the FFDI has a temperature threshold set by recent rainfall above which its sensitivity increases, resulting in some non-linearity in its relationship with the FWI. The sensitivity differences between the indices mean that the indices are complementary in that they each respond to a somewhat different set of conditions, as is shown by examining a number of recent fire events. The fire events also reveal that index values associated with dangerous fire behaviour can vary greatly between different regions. Methods to reduce the consequences of this variation are examined, including the use of index percentiles.

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“…Where the AUSLIG (1990) data set identified land cover as woodland or forest we used the McArthur forest fire danger index (FDI, Noble et al 1980) following Gill and Moore (1998) and Williams et al (2001). This provides a measure of the fire risk which Williams et al (2001) state is a valid indicator of forest fire danger at continental scales.…”

Section: Fire Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires in Australia

2007

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We explore the impact of future climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires over Australia in January using a high resolution regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by data from a transitory coupled climate model. Two future emission scenarios (relatively high and relatively low) are used for 2050 and 2100 and four realizations for each time period and each emission scenario are run. Results show a consistent increase in regional-scale fire risk over Australia driven principally by warming and reductions in relative humidity in all simulations, under all emission scenarios and at all time periods. We calculate the probability density function for the fire risk for a single point in New South Wales and show that the probability of extreme fire risk increases by around 25% compared to the present day in 2050 under both relatively low and relatively high emissions, and that this increases by a further 20% under the relatively low emission scenario by 2100. The increase in the probability of extreme fire risk increases dramatically under the high emission scenario by 2100. Our results are broadly in-line with earlier analyses despite our use of a significantly different methodology and we therefore conclude that the likelihood of a significant increase in fire risk over Australia resulting from climate change is very high. While there is already substantial investment in fire-related management in Australia, our results indicate that this investment is likely to have to increase to maintain the present fire-related losses in Australia.

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McArthur's fire‐danger meters expressed as equations

Cited by 617 publications

References 1 publication

An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index

The impact of climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires in Australia

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