This is the accepted version of the paper.This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. February 14, 2014
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AbstractFor small resource-rich developing economies, specialization in raw exports is usually considered to be detrimental to growth and Resource-Based Industrialization (RBI) is often advocated to promote export diversification. This paper develops a new methodology to assess the performance of these RBI policies. We first formulate an adapted mean-variance portfolio model that explicitly takes into consideration: (i) a technology-based representation of the set of feasible export combinations, and (ii) the cost structure of the resource processing industries. Second, we provide a computationally tractable reformulation of the resulting mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem.Finally, we present an application to the case of natural gas, comparing current and efficient export-oriented industrialization strategies of nine gas-rich developing countries.