2011
DOI: 10.1007/jhep09(2011)039
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Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

Abstract: Abstract:We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventio… Show more

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Cited by 88 publications
(164 citation statements)
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“…Note that a similar problem of choosing a prior for the theoretical uncertainty arises in the Bayesian approach [92,93]. On the one hand the Bayesian approach allows for a choice of priors in general, including the theoretical uncertainty, without having to ask for a statistical interpretation.…”
Section: Theoretical Uncertaintiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Note that a similar problem of choosing a prior for the theoretical uncertainty arises in the Bayesian approach [92,93]. On the one hand the Bayesian approach allows for a choice of priors in general, including the theoretical uncertainty, without having to ask for a statistical interpretation.…”
Section: Theoretical Uncertaintiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The traditional way for estimating theoretical uncertainties associated to collider physics is based on the notion of QCD (factorization and renormalization) scale variation [11,12]. However, it is well known that there are several examples in the literature where the QCD scale uncertainty of the nth order overestimates the (n + 1)th order.…”
Section: Theoretical Accuracymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this context it is worth noting the original proposal made in Ref. [12] which is based on the introduction of a flat (uninformative) Bayesian prior.…”
Section: Theoretical Accuracymentioning
confidence: 99%
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