Measured Canadian oil sands CO2 emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods

Abstract

The oil and gas (O&G) sector represents a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. However, estimates of O&G emissions rely upon bottom-up approaches, and are rarely evaluated through atmospheric measurements. Here, we use aircraft measurements over the Canadian oil sands (OS) to derive the first top-down, measurement-based determination of the their annual CO 2 emissions and intensities. The results indicate that CO 2 emission intensities for OS facilities are 13–123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry, despite emissions reporting which uses the most up to date and recommended bottom-up approaches. Given the similarity in bottom-up reporting methods across the entire O&G sector, these results suggest that O&G CO 2 emissions inventory data may be more uncertain than previously considered.

Validation of MAX-DOAS retrievals of aerosol extinction, SO<sub>2</sub>, and NO<sub>2</sub> through comparison with lidar, sun photometer, active DOAS, and aircraft measurements in the Athabasca oil sands region

“…Our aerosol retrieval used an iterative algorithm based on the Levenberg-Marquart method (Levenberg, 1944;Marquardt, 1963). For aerosol retrievals, the weighting function K is calculated using the a priori x a and the measurement vector y.…”

Methane emissions from an oil sands tailings pond: A quantitative comparison of fluxes derived by different methods

“…There have been a number of studies to quantify the emissions of pollutants to the atmosphere from the various industrial activities associated with the Oil Sands (Simpson et al, 2010;Liggio et al, 2016;Baray et al, 2018;Liggio et al, 2019). Pollutant emissions that have been observed from tailings ponds include greenhouse gases (GHGs, mainly methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2)), reduced sulphur compounds, 30 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (Siddique et al, 2007;Simpson et al, 2010;Yeh et al, 2010;Siddique et al, 2011;Siddique et al, 2012;Galarneau et al 2014;Small et al, 2015; Bari and Kindzierski, 2018;Zhang et al,2019).…”

Cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on the forest carbon balance in the Oil Sands Region of Alberta, Canada; a pilot study (1984–2012)

“…those related to the upland forests. Emissions from fossil sources associated with industrial development, fugitive emissions and from resource extraction are beyond the scope of this study but are signi cant and can easily exceed biogenic emissions [64].…”