Measuring cash flow and overdraft for fuzzy project networks with overlapping activities

Yu, Min-Chun; Dang, Van-Loi; Yeh, Hui‐Chung

doi:10.3846/13923730.2016.1210215

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Their model was applied to a construction project and, based on the result, it has high flexibility for considering project uncertainties. Yu et al [39] developed an algorithm to prepare project cash flow using fuzzy DSM. In their research duration of activities was a fuzzy number and they tried to reduce overlapping of project activates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Fuzzy Modelling to Predict Construction Projects Cash Flow

Tabei¹,

Bagherpour

Mahmoudi

2019

Period. Polytech. Civil Eng.

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Construction project managers are always looking for methods for forecasting future projects and preventing of potential delays in the project. One of the most crucial requirements of construction project managers and financial planners is awareness of project cash flow and financial status. On the other hand, the unique properties of construction projects with uncertainties such as activity duration, the variability of resources, material costs and also ambiguity in the employer’s payments are factors that have an effect on the correct prediction of project cash flow. Hence, the project team should examine project cash flow under uncertainty environment. There are many approaches for considering uncertainty such as fuzzy sets, interval theory, rough and grey system. But the most well-known approach is fuzzy sets which has wide applications in engineering and management. Hence in this paper, we proposed a new method for forecasting project cash flow under fuzzy environment. Finally, the proposed method was applied on an “Engineering, Procurement and Construction” (EPC) project and it is demonstrated that the proposed model has a high performance in the prediction of project cash flow.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Fuzzy Modelling to Predict Construction Projects Cash Flow

Tabei¹,

Bagherpour

Mahmoudi

2019

Period. Polytech. Civil Eng.

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“…It is thus clear that if we want to analyse project cash flows, we have to identify all the most important factors. But the papers in the scientific literature which refer to modelling of uncertainty of project cash flows by means of fuzzy numbers (Cheng et al 2010 ; Djatmiko et al 2019 ; Etgar et al 1997 ; Fathallahi and Najafi 2016 ; Maravas and Pantouvakis 2019 ; Maravas and Pantouvakis 2012 ; Mohagheghi et al 2017 ; Shavandi et al 2012 ; Tabei et al 2019 ; Yu et al 2017 ) use an expert base approach to express cash flows by means of fuzzy numbers, asking the expert to give fuzzy estimates for total cash flow planned for a certain moment or linked to a project activity. No types of cash flow are distinguished and no factors influencing them.…”

Section: Project Cash Flows and Modelling Of Their Uncertainty – Statmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Uncertainty Modelling in Cost and Cash Flow Forecasting in Project

Kuchta

Zabor

2020

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

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Numerous projects (e.g. more than 50% of IT projects) are not finished within budget and cause serious financial problems to the organisations implementing them. It is thus important to be able to predict the cost of projects and cash flows related to them early enough, in order to be able to assess with the necessary anticipation whether the necessary financial means will be available on time and if not, to take in time the necessary measures to solve the menacing problem. In the paper the sources of uncertainty with respect to project cost and cash flows will be identified and their modelling by means of fuzzy sets will be proposed. Such issues neglected in the project management literature as various taxes, duties and impositions, which belong to the area in which project managers are not experts and where they do not follow the detailed regulations, will be discussed too. They are of high importance, because legal changes in this area come often as a surprise for project managers and lead to serious liquidity problems. The approach will be illustrated with a real world case study, in which one of the authors was the member of the project team.

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“…Additionally, risk management is an important concept for every construction contractor (Jannadi, Almishari 2003), and objectives cannot be delivered on time, on budget, or with suitable quality results if risk management is not considered in the construction process. A reliable cash-flow prediction should take into consideration the effect of risk factors, but past research has seldom conducted risk analysis of project cash flows (Yu et al 2017).…”

Section: Cash Flow Forecasting and Risk Factor Consideration Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They acknowledged that the model had limitations arising from the artificial neural networks techniques employed. Yu et al (2017) proposed an algorithm to evaluate uncertainty in cash flows and overdraft requirements for projects that had overlapping activities with fuzzy duration. They conducted risk analysis for cash flows and overdrafts with the appropriate α segments.…”

Section: Cash Flow Forecasting and Risk Factor Consideration Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cash Flow Forecasting With Risk Consideration Using Bayesian Belief Networks (Bbns)

Khanzadi

Eshtehardian

Esfahani

2017

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identification of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reliability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.

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Measuring cash flow and overdraft for fuzzy project networks with overlapping activities

Cited by 12 publications

References 16 publications

Application of Fuzzy Modelling to Predict Construction Projects Cash Flow

Application of Fuzzy Modelling to Predict Construction Projects Cash Flow

Fuzzy Uncertainty Modelling in Cost and Cash Flow Forecasting in Project

Cash Flow Forecasting With Risk Consideration Using Bayesian Belief Networks (Bbns)

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