Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain

Abstract

We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of economic and economic policy uncertainty from Spain. We distinguish between the relative merits of different types of measures based on: (i) the volatility of fi nancial markets; (ii) economic analysts' disagreement; (iii) economic policy uncertainty. We show that the fi rst and the third block of measures are the most relevant to grasp the negative effects of unexpected changes in uncertainty on aggregate economic developments, as measured by real GDP. In addition, we fi nd that economic policy uncertainty and fi nancial uncertainty shocks produce visible negative effects on private consumption. The negative responses on capital goods investments are initially bigger in magnitude but vanish more quickly.

Interdependence of economic policy uncertainty and business cycles in selected emerging market economies

“…This means that the longer the time period, the higher the level of interdependence (for both positive and negative values). These findings support previous studies that argue that EPU correlates with economic variables (Government of India, 2019; Carrière-Swallow and Céspedes, 2013; and Ghirelli et al , 2019b).…”

Staying Dry on Spanish Wine: The Rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian Trade Agreement

“…From the empirical standpoint, similarly to the approach used for codifying "ideology", I rely on the results of the confidence vote on the "Fortis II" government to determine the MPs stance on the issue (dummy equal to one if the MP voted "yes" in the "Fortis II" confidence vote). In Column 4 to 6, I use data for 1905 wine production only, instead of the [1901][1902][1903][1904][1905] average. In Column 7 to 9, I alleviate the hypothesis that absences among MPs during the vote followed a random distribution (i.e.…”

The Interactions of Social Norms About Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics

“…Our method for creating indices is taken from Baker et al (2016) and Ghirelli et al (2021) applied to a different field. Our theoretical model is inspired by the work in social networks pioneered by Ballester et al (2006) 2 Evolution of mentions to climate change…”