Measuring Long‐Term Patterns of Political Secularization and Desecularization: Did They Happen or Not?

Abstract

Political secularization theories have predicted religion's decline in public and political life, and desecularization theories have predicted the reverse trend. However, there is little agreement on the timing of either phenomenon or even their existence. Until now, deep empirical tests of any of these were hampered by lack of historical country‐level data on religious preferences of governments (previously used data sets go back only to 1990). However, the new Government Religious Preference data set (GRP) measures state religion from 2015 back to the 1800s. Using GRP data, this article offers the first long‐term quantitative measurement of political secularization and in doing so, weighs in on competing claims regarding its timing. This article finds strong support that political secularization happened gradually over the long 19th century, accelerated after World War II, and peaked in the 1970s or 1980s. In contrast, the article finds only tepid support for the existence of political desecularization overall.

Secularization theories in the twenty-first century: Ideas, evidence, and problems. Presidential address

“…An area of obvious progress that I do not deal with is the careful description with better data of secularization trends. See, for example, Vezzoni and Biolcati Rinaldi (2015), Liedhegener (2014), and Brown (2019). Another area of progress not dealt with here concerns the effects of secularization on other areas of life (e.g.…”

Identification of Cross-Country Similarities and Differences in Regulation of Religion Between 2000 and 2014 with Help of Cluster Analysis

“…In contrast, negative restrictions on religion are government policies, which restrict the freedom of religion (e.g., restrictions on religious institutions, restrictions on the practice of religion) (for discussion, see Grim and Finke 2006; Gill 2007, 12ff). These different aspects of regulation are further conceptualized (and consequently operationalized) slightly differently in the different datasets on regulation (Grim and Finke 2006; Brown 2019; Fox 2019; Pew Research Center 2019).…”

“…In descriptive studies, some scholars have investigated whether the decline of religion predicted by the secularization theory (for a review, see Gorski and Altinordu 2008; Fox 2013, 17–35) has taken place. While the long-term trend has indeed been a decline over the past two centuries (Brown 2019), there are indications that since the 1990s the regulation of religion has increased (Fox 2006, 2014). Further, some of the descriptive studies focus on regulation in particular geopolitical contexts (Fox 2008, 2013, 2020; Sarkissian 2009) or aim to provide an annual report about global trends (Pew Research Center's reports since 2009).…”

“…Fox 2008); changes in regulation over time (e.g. Brown 2019); determinants of regulation (e.g. Fox 2006; Buckley and Mantilla 2013); and consequences of regulation for other policy areas such as women's rights (Ben-Nun Bloom 2015), the number of classificatory studies is still somewhat limited.…”

Religious Reasons and Public Reason: Recalibrating Ireland’s Benevolent Secularism

“…Recent statistical and sociological analyses of the global phenomenon of secularization have borne out the reality that secularization has in fact taken place across many cultures and geographical territories. The so-called theory of de-secularization, one author finds, never happened as such; the so-called re-sacralization of a state or government has been so marginal as to be rendered inconsequential (Brown, 2019). Even Peter Berger, a chief proponent (in 1990s) of de-secularization as a form of "walking back" the excessive claims and hubris of the secularization theory, has indicated in more recent writings that he has stepped back too far (Berger, 2014).…”