Measuring progress towards reaching zero new HIV acquisitions among key populations in Québec (Canada) using routine surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study

Abstract

Introduction Men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) are disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic in Canada. Having the second‐highest provincial diagnosis rate, an improved understanding of the epidemic among these populations in Québec could aid ongoing elimination efforts. We estimated HIV incidence and other epidemic indicators among MSM and PWID in Montréal and across Québec using a back‐calculation model synthesizing surveillance data. Methods We developed a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model stratified by age, HIV status and disease progression, and clinical care stages. Using AIDS and HIV diagnoses data, including self‐reported time since the last negative test and laboratory results of CD4 cell count at diagnosis, we estimated HIV incidence in each population over 1975–2020 by modelling a cubic M‐spline. The prevalence, undiagnosed fraction, fraction diagnosed that started antiretroviral treatment (ART) and median time to diagnosis were also estimated. Since the COVID‐19 pandemic disrupted testing, we excluded 2020 data and explored this in sensitivity analyses. Results HIV incidence in all populations peaked early in the epidemic. In 2020, an estimated 97 (95% CrI: 33–227) and 266 (95% CrI: 103–508) HIV acquisitions occurred among MSM in Montréal and Québec, respectively. Among PWID, we estimated 2 (95% CrI: 0–14) and 6 (95% CrI: 1–26) HIV acquisitions in those same regions. With 2020 data, unless testing rates were reduced by 50%, these estimates decreased, except among Québec PWID, whose increased. Among all, the median time to diagnosis shortened to <2 years before 2020 and the undiagnosed fraction decreased to <10%. This fraction was higher in younger MSM, with 22% of 15–24 year‐olds living with HIV in Montréal (95% CrI: 9–39%) and 31% in Québec (95% CrI: 17–48%) undiagnosed by 2020 year‐end. Finally, ART access neared 100% in all diagnosed populations. Conclusions HIV incidence has drastically decreased in MSM and PWID across Québec, alongside significant improvements in diagnosis and treatment coverage—and the 2013 introduction of pre‐exposure prophylaxis. Despite this, HIV transmission continued. Effective efforts to halt this transmission and rapidly diagnose people who acquired HIV, especially among younger MSM, are needed to achieve elimination. Further, as the impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on HIV transmission are understood, increased efforts may be needed to overcome these.

Population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal: a modelling study of surveillance and survey data

“…With over two million people, Montréal is Québec's largest city 19 and the epicentre of its HIV epidemic 20 . It was the first city in Canada to join the Fast-Track Cities initiative, aiming to eliminate HIV 21 , and has well-established HIV surveillance and population-based data for monitoring the HIV response.…”

Population‐level effectiveness of pre‐exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal (Canada): a modelling study of surveillance and survey data

“…With close to two million people, Montréal is Québec's largest city [19] and its HIV epidemic epicentre [20]. It was the first Canadian city to join the Fast-Track Cities initiative, aiming to eliminate HIV [21], and has well-established surveillance and population-based data for monitoring the HIV response.…”