Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

Stoffel, Michael F.; Sieberer, Ulrich

doi:10.1080/01402382.2017.1400273

Cited by 16 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In the first step, the hurdle-component models male MPs' general decision whether or not to become active in the substantive representation of women. If this hurdle is 10 Using re-election probabilities as an alternative measurement of electoral incentives (Stoffel and Sieberer 2018) has no effect on the results. 11 The following offices are treated as leadership positions: Chancellor, president of the Bundestag, cabinet minister, junior minister, chair of a permanent committee, chair of PPG, party whip.…”

Section: Statistical Model: Hurdle Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Do Men Represent Women’s Interests in Parliament? How the Presence of Women in Parliament Affects the Legislative Behavior of Male Politicians

Höhmann

2020

Swiss Political Sci Review

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This paper analyzes the conditions affecting male Members of Parliaments’ (MPs) proclivity for representing women’s interests. It particularly explores whether the presence of female MPs has an effect on men’s parliamentary behavior. Three contrasting effects are discussed in the literature: (1) A spillover effect which postulates that men will become more likely to act on behalf of women if the number of female MPs increases, (2) a group‐threat effect which creates a hostile backlash among male MPs, or (3) a specialization effect which makes male MPs less likely to represent women because this is typically seen as a function that should be fulfilled by female MPs. Empirically, this paper analyzes the representation of women’s issues in parliamentary questions tabled in the German Bundestag (1998‐2013) by using automated content analysis. The results support the specialization hypothesis and show that male MPs reduce their intensity of women’s representation if the proportion of female MPs is high.

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Section: Statistical Model: Hurdle Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Do Men Represent Women’s Interests in Parliament? How the Presence of Women in Parliament Affects the Legislative Behavior of Male Politicians

Höhmann

2020

Swiss Political Sci Review

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“…Hennl and Kaiser (2008) show that parties pre-estimate secure list positions based on previous electoral results and survey data. Alternative operationalization approaches from the literature include looking at which exact list positions led to election throughout several previous election results (Stoffel and Sieberer, 2018). However, the latter option requires cross-temporal stability in parliament’s size, district magnitude and ballot list length.…”

Section: Meaningful Candidate Promotions: Access To Realistic List Pomentioning

confidence: 99%

Party nomination strategies in flexible-list systems: Do preference votes matter for realistic list positions?

Put¹,

Smulders²,

Maddens

2019

Party Politics

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Previous studies on flexible-list systems demonstrate that party selectorates promote candidates with a high number of preference votes to better list positions in the next election. This research note asks whether these rank promotions are limited to candidates in unrealistic list positions at the lower end of the ballot or also include candidates moving into realistic list positions (i.e. electorally safer highest ranks). Using a longitudinal data set of candidates for 18 parliamentary elections in Flanders (Belgium), we first successfully replicate the earlier established preference vote-effect on future list positions, but subsequently show that promotions from unrealistic to realistic positions are relatively rare. Moreover, preference votes do not seem to affect the ability to move upwards on the list or to receive a realistic position at the next election when controlling for incumbency and list position at the previous election. Robustness tests using different operationalizations for realistic position lead to similar empirical results. Preference votes do not seem to matter for realistic list positions.

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“…Secondly, the dataset includes variables on the way MPs won their seats. For each legislative period we coded how an MP was elected in the German mixed electoral system (either via a single-member district or a party list), whether she ran as a candidate in both tiers and how competitive her election was (closeness of the district race, rank on the party list, and estimated re-election probabilities; see Stoffel and Sieberer 2018). Finally, the dataset records the exact time periods during which MPs held any of the following executive or legislative offices: cabinet minister, junior minister, president or vice president of the Bundestag, (vice-)chair of a standing committee, (vice-)chair of a parliamentary party group and party whip.…”

Section: Mp Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roll-Call Votes in the German Bundestag: A New Dataset, 1949–2013

Sieberer

Saalfeld

Ohmura³

et al. 2018

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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This letter introduces and describes new datasets that include all roll call votes (RCVs) taken in the German Bundestag from 1949 to 2013 as well as crucial contextual data on characteristics of the voting members of the Bundestag (MPs) and the RCVs taken. The data cover almost 2,000 RCVs, more than 3,500 MPs, and about 1,100,000 individual voting decisions. The data make the German case accessible for comparative roll call analysis and allow systematic longitudinal analyses of various research questions regarding legislative behavior in the Bundestag, some of which we briefly discuss in the concluding section.

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Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

Cited by 16 publications

References 26 publications

When Do Men Represent Women’s Interests in Parliament? How the Presence of Women in Parliament Affects the Legislative Behavior of Male Politicians

When Do Men Represent Women’s Interests in Parliament? How the Presence of Women in Parliament Affects the Legislative Behavior of Male Politicians

Party nomination strategies in flexible-list systems: Do preference votes matter for realistic list positions?

Roll-Call Votes in the German Bundestag: A New Dataset, 1949–2013

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