2009
DOI: 10.1002/jae.1081
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Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition

Abstract: SUMMARYThis paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity, which is usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity, is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status, in particular employment status and household composition, are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes. Therefore, a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future emp… Show more

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Cited by 144 publications
(161 citation statements)
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“…For example, poverty is considered to be more persistent if it is more likely for individuals to be poor in the current period if they were already poor in the previous period [6], [7]. This approach is more intuitive and informationally less demanding, but it is obviously also less informative.…”
Section: Discussion Of Pros and Cons When Should Poverty Be Considerementioning
confidence: 99%
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“…For example, poverty is considered to be more persistent if it is more likely for individuals to be poor in the current period if they were already poor in the previous period [6], [7]. This approach is more intuitive and informationally less demanding, but it is obviously also less informative.…”
Section: Discussion Of Pros and Cons When Should Poverty Be Considerementioning
confidence: 99%
“…This effect could occur because of an incentive mechanism (the loss of entitlement to welfare payments means that it is not worthwhile to take a job) or because slipping into poverty triggers processes that make future poverty more likely, such as demoralization, habituation, stigmatization, and depreciation of human capital. There is evidence that being poor in one period decreases the likelihood of being employed and of living with a partner in the next period, potentially giving rise to dynamic poverty effects [7].…”
Section: Mechanisms Of Poverty Persistencementioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The specific application that we examine looks at how migration from villages in rural China a↵ects the likelihood that households will fall into poverty. Use of a dynamic binary response model focusses attention on whether or not a household passes a specific point in the distribution of consumption, or alternatively income (e.g., Biewen, 2009;Hansen and Wahlberg, 2009). By doing this, we address a policy-relevant question of how a treatment, in this case increased migration, a↵ects the likelihood that poor households will remain poor and the likelihood that non-poor households will fall into poverty.…”
Section: Persistence In Rural Chinamentioning
confidence: 99%