Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

Gehringer, Agnieszka; Mayer, Thomas

doi:10.1007/s41549-021-00054-6

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…For instance, Kufel et al (2021) use energy consumption when modeling business cycles and Cizmesija (2021) evaluates the relationship between the Economic Sentiment Indicator and GDP growth. Moreover, Gehringer and Mayer (2021) compile information from 20 macroeconomic indicators using the principal component analysis in order to obtain a business cycle indicator for Germany.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries

Grecu

2022

Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence

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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic activity worldwide. Despite the progress made by vaccination campaigns, important uncertainties still linger amid persistent global value chains disruptions and the ongoing energy crisis. A proper understanding of the behavior of the economy is therefore essential for future policy decisions. While there are plenty of studies regarding business cycles, using various methods from univariate filters to more complex methods, less papers focus on large scale comparisons. In this paper, we provide an overview of business cycles in European Union countries. We use the Hodrick-Prescott filter in order to measure the cyclical component of the gross domestic product and the Bry-Boschan-Quarterly algorithm for further analysis, namely the duration and the amplitude of the business cycles. Our results show that their size in European Union countries varies from 2.7 to 6 years and their amplitude is between 1.6 and 5.6 percentage points. We show that in developed economies, business cycles are more stable. Furthermore, strong correlations in terms of business cycles are found in the case of certain groups of countries, such as the Baltic ones or Belgium, Austria and France. In the case of Romania, its business cycle is more similar to the one of Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia. These results could provide useful information for policymakers in terms of future policy decisions conditional on both the current state of the economy and its structural characteristics. Under these circumstances, support measures should also take into consideration such properties of the economy.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries

Grecu

2022

Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence

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“…The second theme refers to the economic activity being the base of the business cycles. Gehringer & Mayer (2021) postulate that economic activity is a broad and abstract concept that looks at different industry outputs from a multidimensional perspective. In this regard, the paper focuses on economic activity related to steel production, the correlations between GDP movements over time with changes in demand and supply.…”

Section: Definitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business Cycles and Growth of South African Steel Manufacturing Industry

Tsebe

2022

JEBS

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The paper studies the relationship between the South African business cycle and the performance of the steel industry. The analysis was conducted by first providing a brief bibliometric review of the definitions used for business cycles in literature. From this initial analysis, emerging themes were used to define the narrative literature review on the relationship between business cycles, economic growth, and supply-demand of the steel industry. Findings from the review, indicate a binary relationship between economic growth and steel industry output. It is recommended that future studies be done on quantitative analysis of the binary and ternary relationships between economic growth and other primary manufacturing industries in South Africa.

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“…Several studies have focused on characterising business cycles using various approaches, such as Bry and Boschan algorithm (Borsi, 2018;Bry & Boschan, 1971;Calderón & Fuentes, 2014;Carmignani, 2010;Gadea et al, 2017;Harding & Pagan, 2002;Majetti, 2012;Martínez-Garcíaa et al, 2015;Mazzi & Savio, 2006;Pretorius & Venter, 2001), MS-VAR model and its extensions (Anas & Ferrara, 2007;Artis et al, 2004;Camacho et al, 2020;Eo & Kim, 2016;Eo & Morley, 2022;Kim et al, 2005;Krolzig, 2001;Liu, 2004;Wang, 2009) and principal component analysis (PCA) (Gehringer & Mayer, 2021).…”

Section: Selective Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past

Djoukouo

2022

J of Intl Development

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The Great Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns about business cycles. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of past business cycles in CAEMC economies to infer the shapes of recessions and subsequent recoveries. We use annual GDP data covering the period 1960-2020 and non-parametric approach. The main results are fourfold. First, recessions are, on average, long with a positive duration dependence relationship and the strength of recoveries is independent of the duration and the depth of the associated recessions. Second, recessions and recoveries are not all alike, meaning that history cannot be used as a guide for forecasting issue. Third, nearly 45% of the recessions and subsequent recoveries are V-shaped, and the L, U and W patterns appear when governments are heavily indebted. Fourth, a regional cycle sometimes emerges. The results suggest a strengthening of the capacities of CAEMC states and a resilient supply chain management.

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Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

Cited by 5 publications

References 29 publications

Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries

Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries

Business Cycles and Growth of South African Steel Manufacturing Industry

Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past

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