Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach

Abstract

Myanmar is the country with the highest economic vulnerability (EV) to climate change in the Southeast Asian region. The dry zone of Myanmar occupies two-thirds of the agricultural lands and it has higher temperatures than elsewhere in the country. Climate change has severe impacts on agricultural production in this region. Moreover, changes in the precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of crop failures in the short-run and production declines in the long run. Therefore, an assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on crop production in the dry zone of Myanmar is very relevant. This paper examines the interactions between agriculture and climate and assesses the economic impact of climate change while using a Ricardian model. A cross-sectional survey covering three regions in the central dry zone: (Magwe, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions) was conducted, yielding a sample of 425 farmers. A non-linear relationship between climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) and revenue of land was found. The marginal effects were calculated by selecting economic and socio-demographic variables. The estimated marginal impacts suggest that the projected changes in temperature will affect the crop productivity of the region. The results also show that the temperature and rainfall components of global warming are both important. Predictions from three global circulation models all confirm that temperature is predicted to increase in all seasons. A significant marginal impact of increasing temperature on the net revenue of farm households was observed in the region. These findings call for policy makers and development planners to articulate the necessary climate change adaptation measures and mitigation options for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Improved management and conservation of the available water resources could generate water for irrigation purposes and the dissemination of climate smart agricultural practices could lessen the negative impacts of climate change effects on agriculture in the dry zone of Myanmar.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Variability in Myanmar Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Its Impact on Crop Production

“…From the literature, the potential influence of climate variability on crop production is mainly sensitive to rainfall and other inter-variable dependence such as temperature and evapotranspiration variabilities [49][50][51]. This is because crop production needs optimal precipitation and tolerable temperature ranges for growth and development [52], and drought variations may potentially reduce crop production and affect the agricultural systems of countries with no climate literacy or weak implementation strategy [50].…”

“…Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable countries in the region due to her diverse agro-climatic conditions [49]. Past studies showed that Myanmar has experienced both precipitation and temperature changes over the last decade [53][54][55][56].…”

“…These changes have had implication on the length of wet season and influenced farmers decision to grow their crops. For example, few studies found high precipitation and temperature variability to impact crop productivity [49,57]. However, the effect of climate change on Myanmar on the crop production is less explored.…”

Climate Sensitivity and the Value of Agricultural Production in the Brazilian Northeast: An Approach Using Spatial Panel Data

“…They also argue that the evidence on global greening and the response of agricultural crops to enhanced CO2 availability suggests that the productivity boost is likely stronger than that parameterized in FUND. Oo et al (2020) measure the economic impact of climate change on crop production in Myanmar, through a Ricardian approach. A cross-sectional survey covering three regions in the central dry zone: (Magwe, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions) was conducted, yielding a sample of 425 farmers.…”

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN INDONESIA: A REVIEW / Pengelolaan Resiko Iklim untuk Pertanian Berkelanjutan di Indonesia: Sebuah Tinjauan

“…A griculture and food production is strongly influenced by adverse weather and climate change, especially if experienced during critical stages of growth. It influences food production directly through changes in agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by affecting the growth and the distribution of incomes, and thus the demand for agricultural production (Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007;Tun Oo et al 2020;Boer and Surmaini 2002). Climate change is likely to contribute substantially to food insecurity in the future, due to increasing food prices, and reducing food production.…”