Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study

Chen, Yuyang; Li, Naizhe; Lourenço, José; Wang, Lin; Cazelles, Bernard; Dong, Lü; Li, Bingying; Liu, Yang; Jit, Mark; Bosse, Nikos I.; Abbott, Sam; Velayudhan, Raman; Wilder‐Smith, Annelies; Tian, Huaiyu; Brady, Oliver J.

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00025-1

Cited by 99 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries reported significantly fewer dengue cases in both year 2020 and 2021. Many countries in South East Asia and Latin America, excluding Singapore, Brazil and Peru had reported a 44.1% reduction in the reported number of dengue cases by the end of 2020, compared to previous years [3]. This reduction was shown to be largely due to a school closures and restriction in human movement to non-residential areas, rather than due to under reporting [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many countries in South East Asia and Latin America, excluding Singapore, Brazil and Peru had reported a 44.1% reduction in the reported number of dengue cases by the end of 2020, compared to previous years [3]. This reduction was shown to be largely due to a school closures and restriction in human movement to non-residential areas, rather than due to under reporting [3]. Although, Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, Indonesia and certain other South Asian and South East Asian countries were excluded from this analysis, India experienced a 84% reduction in the number of cases in 2020 [4], while Sri Lanka experienced a 74% reduction from March 2020 to April 2021 [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiological and virological factors determining dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during the COVID-19 pandemic

Ariyaratne

Gomes

Jayadas

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 there was a drastic reduction in the number of dengue cases in Sri Lanka, with an increase towards the end of 2021. We sought to study the contribution of virological factors, human mobility, school closure and mosquito factors in affecting these changes in dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during this time. Methods and findings: To understand the reasons for the differences in the dengue case numbers in 2020 to 2021 compared to previous years, we determined the association between the case numbers in Colombo (which has continuously reported the highest number of cases) with school closures, stringency index, changes in dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and vector densities. There was a 79.4% drop in dengue cases from 2019 to 2020 in Colombo. A significant negative correlation was seen with the number of cases and school closures (Spearman’s r=-0.4732, p=<0.0001) and a negative correlation, which was not significant, between the stringency index and case numbers (Spearman’s r= -0.3755 p=0.0587). There was no change in the circulating DENV serotypes with DENV2 remaining the most prevalent serotype by early 2022 (65%), similar to the frequencies observed by end of 2019. The Aedes aegypti premise and container indices showed positive but insignificant correlations with dengue case numbers (Spearman r= 0.8827, p=0.93). Conclusions: Lockdown measures, especially school closures seemed to have had a significant impact on the number of dengue cases, while the vector indices had a limited effect.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological and virological factors determining dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during the COVID-19 pandemic

Ariyaratne

Gomes

Jayadas

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Christina Yek and colleagues raise two additional considerations when interpreting our recent findings that COVID-19 interventions reduced dengue incidence in 2020. 1 First, whether administrative delays might be an additional, unconsidered dimension to under-reporting and, second, whether the inclusion of abnormal data from 2019 might bias our predictions of cases averted.…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

“… 3 , 4 The annual anomaly term in our model estimates this expected post-outbreak reduction. Although 2019 was an unprecedented year for dengue globally, many countries have had similar outbreaks previously (see the appendix [p 31] in our Article 1 ), allowing annual anomaly effects to be appropriately estimated. Inclusion of this term decreases predicted cases in 2020 and, thus, cases averted by COVID-19 interventions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, removing 2019 dengue data from the historical model-fitting dataset, as suggested, marginally increases our estimate of dengue cases averted by COVID-19 interventions but also substantially increases prediction uncertainty (0·76 million [95% credible interval 0·00–2·23] vs 0·72 million [0·12–1·47]). We therefore believe the original estimates we presented 1 offer the best overall estimate of the protective effects of COVID-19 interventions against dengue.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Additional considerations for assessing COVID-19 impact on dengue transmission – Authors' reply

Brady

Tian

2022

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Risk factors identification of COVID‐19 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A retrospective study in Punjab‐Pakistan

Hassan,

Tahir,

Ameeq

et al. 2023

Immunity Inflam & Disease

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BackgroundAccessibility to the immense collection of studies on noncommunicable diseases related to coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID‐19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) is an immediate focus of researchers. However, there is a scarcity of information about chronic obstructed pulmonary disease (COPD), which is associated with a high rate of infection in COVID‐19 patients. Moreover, by combining the effects of the SARS‐CoV‐2 on COPD patients, we may be able to overcome formidable obstacles factors, and diagnosis influencers.Materials and MethodsA retrospective study of 280 patients was conducted at DHQ Hospital Muzaffargarh in Punjab, Pakistan. Negative binomial regression describes the risk of fixed successive variables. The association is described by the Cox proportional hazard model and the model coefficient is determined through log‐likelihood observation. Patients with COPD had their survival and mortality plotted on Kaplan–Meier curves.ResultsThe increased risk of death in COPD patients was due to the effects of variables such as cough, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), tuberculosis (TB), and body‐aches being 1.369, 0.693, 0.170, and 0.217 times higher at (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.747–1.992), (95% CI: 0.231–1.156), (95% CI: 0.008–0.332), and (95% CI: −0.07 to 0.440) while it decreased 0.396 in normal condition.ConclusionWe found that the symptoms of COPD (cough, LRTI, TB, and bodyaches) are statistically significant in patients who were most infected by SARS‐CoV‐2.

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Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study

Cited by 99 publications

References 30 publications

Epidemiological and virological factors determining dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during the COVID-19 pandemic

Epidemiological and virological factors determining dengue transmission in Sri Lanka during the COVID-19 pandemic

Additional considerations for assessing COVID-19 impact on dengue transmission – Authors' reply

Risk factors identification of COVID‐19 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A retrospective study in Punjab‐Pakistan

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