Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal

Abstract

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide response resulted in a death toll amongst the highest recorded globally. To evaluate the impact of the nonpharmaceutical governmental interventions applied by different cities—such as the closure of schools and businesses in general—in the evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed a full-sized agent-based epidemiological model adjusted to the singularities of particular cities. The model incorporates detailed demographic information, mobility networks segregated by economic segments, and restricting bills enacted during the pandemic period. As a case study, we analyzed the early response of the City of Natal—a midsized state capital—to the pandemic. Although our results indicate that the government response could be improved, the restrictive mobility acts saved many lives. The simulations show that a detailed analysis of alternative scenarios can inform policymakers about the most relevant measures for similar pandemic surges and help develop future response protocols.

Second booster dose improves antibody neutralization against BA.1, BA.5 and BQ.1.1 in individuals previously immunized with CoronaVac plus BNT162B2 booster protocol

“…At that moment, one year after the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine, all of the restrictive measurements in Brazil were abrogated, and a peak of omicron BA.1 infection was on course, increasing exposure to the virus ( Lopes et al., 2022 ; Lamarca et al., 2023 ). Despite the limitation imposed by this constant activation of memory immunity in the cohort, the results presented here clearly show that the second booster dose, when compared with no booster and 1 booster groups, 18m after the primary vaccination, improved considerably the antibody response against all subvariants ( Figure 2C ).…”

Response Strategies for Emerging Infectious Diseases: More Efforts Are Needed

“…Several studies [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ] have shown that pharmaceutical interventions (PIs) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as vaccination, mask-wearing and mandatory isolation, play a significant role in controlling the spread of infectious diseases. They can achieve several objectives, including reducing the number of infections and shortening the duration of the epidemic.…”