Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Since the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.

Published Research on COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Bibliometric Analysis

“…For example, religious tourism in Qom, a pilgrimage site in Iran, which continued during the pandemic, was a major source of spread to other Iranian cities, Pakistan, and KSA in the early stages of the pandemic [ 37 - 39 ]. In KSA, mass gathering events, such as Umrah and Hajj, which were put on hold during the pandemic, may have also contributed to the high number of publications, not because of the high risk of transmission, but because of the successful measures that KSA took to prevent the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally [ 39 - 41 ].…”

Healthcare policies, precautionary measures and outcomes of mass gathering events in the era of COVID-19 pandemic: Expedited review

“…Having so many people with different backgrounds and norms together at once is a breeding ground for outbreaks. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several nations banned cultural and sporting activities because of the high risk of disseminating SARS-CoV-2 linked with MG events, including Saudi Arabia [12] , [13] , India [14] , [15] , [16] , Japan [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , Malawi [21] , Switzerland [22] , Malta [23] , Jordan [24] , Germany [25] , France [26] , Spain [27] , Italy [28] , Malaysia [29] , Iran [30] , and China [31] .…”

COVID-19 and other respiratory tract infections at mass gathering religious and sporting events

“…In a mathematical study, decreasing the probability of transmission and the magnitude of the population resulted in the reduction of the total number of infected and exposed individuals to be < 25,000 from about 3.5 million with no measures being taken [64].…”