Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca–South American subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability

Abstract

Abstract. Four geographical zones are defined along the trench that is formed due to the subduction of the Nazca plate underneath the South American plate; they are denoted A, B, C and D from north to south; zones A, B and D had a major earthquake after 2010 (magnitude over 8.0), while zone C has not, thus offering a contrast for comparison. For each zone, a sequence of intervals between consecutive seisms with magnitudes greater than or equal to 3.0 is set up and then characterized by Shannon entropy and mutability. These methods show a correlation after a major earthquake in what is known as the aftershock regime but show independence otherwise. Exponential adjustments to these parameters reveal that mutability offers a wider range for the parameters to characterize the recovery compared to the values of the parameters defining the background activity for each zone before a large earthquake. It is found that the background activity is particularly high for zone A, still recovering for zone B, reaching values similar to those of zone A in the case of zone C (without recent major earthquake) and oscillating around moderate values for zone D. It is discussed how this can be an indication of more risk of an important future seism in the cases of zones A and C. The similarities and differences between Shannon entropy and mutability are discussed and explained.

Seismic Magnitudes Entropy and b-value

“…(Berrill & Davis, 1980;Bookstein, 2021;De Santis et al, 2011;Dong et al, 1984;Feng and Luo, 2009;Janes, 1957;Mansinha & Shen, 1987;Main & Naylor, 2008;Shen & Mansinha, 1983;Telesca et al 2004 ). Other studies use entropy as an indicator of proximity to criticality (Main & Al-Kindy, 2002;Vogel et al, 2020), some using socalled natural time (Ramírez-Rojas et al, 2018;Rundle et al 2019;Sarlis et al, 2018;Varotsos et al, 2004;Varotsos et al, 2022;Varotsos et al, 2023) many using other definitions of entropy, and some for seismic electric signals (Varotsos et al, 2006). Entropy has also been used to study the spatial distribution of seismic sources (e.g.…”

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