Measuring Trade Creating Effects of RTAs: A Fixed Effect Estimation Approach

América Latina y Corea del Sur: intereses y desafios comunes

“…The basic idea behind this is that if φ1 is a positive value, it indicates that the two countries trade more with one another than predicted by the core factors and other variables, and is thus taken as evidence of trade creation. (Lee, 2008) φ1 RTAijt will capture the trade creation effect of our bloc under study Central America and Republic of Korea. Bergstrand, (2007) states that since countries are likely to select their FTA partners and this may become correlated with their levels of trade, it is considered that the variables on the right side of the equation as FTAs are endogenous which implies that the effects of FTAs on trade flows may be biased.…”

“…To treat the problem of endogeneity bias in a panel data set as in this research, fixedeffects model can be used to control for all factors that are fixed over time and random effect is all or some of the explanatory variables are treated as if they arise from the random causes. Its assumption is that the individual specific effects are uncorrelated with the independent variable (Eggar, 2000) Specifically, the following gravity model was estimated: (Lee, 2008) The dummy variables will be extended into three sets. One for each specific Central American RTA with East Asian countries, to see if the trade-creation effect is greater than the trade-diversion effect in that specific RTA.…”

“…We applied the Ordinary Least Square method in order to estimate the equation (3) from 1971 to 2016. As Lee (2008) states that bilateral FTA´s using the gravity equation are subject to the endogenous bias of explanatory variables, random effect and fixed effect are used.…”

Pengaruh Trade Creation dan Trade Diversion pada ACFTA terhadap Ekspor Karet (HS 40) Indonesia

“…Data jarak geografis diperoleh dari Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII). Ukuran kesamaan perekonomian (Mauro, 2000), jarak ekonomi (Lee, 2008), dan REER (Abdumanapov, 2002) dihitung berdasarkan perhitungan dengan rumus sebagai berikut:…”

“…Persentase peningkatan perdagangan di luar wilayah ACFTA adalah 𝑒 0,6330 = 88,328%. Perdagangan antara negara di luar blok tidak terganggu dengan adanya ACFTA dan dapat ditafsirkan bahwa negara mitra dagang di luar blok dalam hal ini ACFTA terbuka dalam mengimpor dari luar wilayah (Lee, 2008). Hasil ini sesuai dengan penelitian Darma dan Hastiadi (2017) dan Handoyo, Sugiharti, dan Esquivas (2021), namun berbeda dengan penelitian Mareta (2018).…”