Meat consumption reduction in Italian regions: Health co-benefits and decreases in GHG emissions

Abstract

IntroductionAnimal agriculture has exponentially grown in recent decades in response to the rise in global demand for meat, even in countries like Italy that traditionally eat a Mediterranean, plant-based diet. Globalization related dietary changes are contributing to the epidemic of non-communicable diseases and to the global climate crisis, and are associated with huge carbon and water footprints.The objective of the study is to assess inequalities in health impacts and in attributable greenhouse gases-GHG emissions in Italy by hypothesizing different scenarios of reduction in red and processed meat consumption towards healthier consumption patterns more compliant with the recommendations of the Mediterranean food pyramid.MethodsWe used demographic and food consumption patterns from national surveys and risk relationships between meat intake and cardiovascular and colorectal cancer mortality from IARC and other meta-analyses.From the baseline data (year 2005–2006, average 406 gr/week beef and 245 gr/week processed meat), we considered hypothetical meat reduction scenarios according to international dietary guidelines such as the Mediterranean pyramid targets. For each geographical area (Northwest, Northeast, Centre, and South) and gender, we calculated the number of avoidable deaths from colorectal cancer, and cardiovascular disease among the adult population. Moreover, years of life gained by the adult population from 2012 to 2030 and changes in life expectancy of the 2012 birth cohort were quantified using gender-specific life tables.GHG emission reductions under Mediterranean scenario were estimated only for beef by applying the Global Warming Potential (GWP) coefficient to total consumption and to a low carbon food substitution in adult diet.ResultsThe deaths avoidable (as percentage change compared to baseline) according to the three reduction scenarios for beef consumption were between 2.3% and 4.5% for colorectal cancer, and between 2.1% and 4.0% for cardiovascular disease; higher benefits would be observed in Northwestern areas and among males. In parallel, 5% and 6.4% of colorectal cancer and CVD deaths would be avoided if the Italian population ate the advised quantity of processed meat. Life table analysis suggests that the scenario that is fully compliant with the Mediterranean diet model would save 5 million years of life lost prematurely among men and women over the next 18 years and would increase average life expectancy of future generations by over 7 months.Considering the environmental impact, emissions associated with the actual total intake of beef range from 12,900 to 21,800 Gg CO2 eq; emissions saved according to the Mediterranean scenario are in the range 8000–14000 Gg CO2 eq per year. The per capita reduction is 263 KgCO2eq/year/person with higher reductions in Northwestern and Central areas.ConclusionsIn Italy, scenarios for reducing beef consumption are consistent with significant health and environmental co-benefits on current and future generations. Results support introducing polici...

Regulatory Focus and the Effect of Nutritional Messages on Health and Well‐Being: The Case of Red Meat Intake

“…Bernstein et al., ; Tilman & Clark, ; Zur & Klöckner, ), and its correlation with the global obesity epidemic (Vergnaud et al., ). In many European countries, people eat more red meat than the recommended amount (Farchi, De Sario, Lapucci, Davoli, & Michelozzi, ), that is a maximum of two servings per week (e.g. Bach‐Faig et al., ).…”

Association between a pro plant‐based dietary score and cancer risk in the prospective NutriNet‐santé cohort

“…Dietary patterns are shifting towards nutritional contents high in refined sugars and meats, and lower in fruits and vegetables . This global dietary transition impacts both environmental sustainability and public health . Indeed, by 2050 these dietary trends could contribute to a 80% increase of agriculture‐related greenhouse gas emissions and participate in the rise of chronic non‐communicable diseases such as obesity, type 2 diabetes and cancer .…”

Climate policy co-benefits: a review

“…The most well-developed of these six studies, Springmann, Godfray, Rayner, and Scarborough (2016), concludes that a transition towards plant-based diets could reduce global mortality 6-10% and food-related GHG emissions 29-70% by 2050, compared with a reference scenario, equalling health co-benefits of 0.4-13% of global GDP. In a study by Farchi, De Sario, Lapucci, Davoli, and Michelozzi (2017) of three regional Italian meat reduction scenarios, 2.3-4.5% fewer deaths in colorectal cancer and 2-4% fewer deaths in cardiovascular diseases are associated with clear GHG emission reductions (263 kg CO 2 e/yr and person). These various findings support the statement of Watts et al (2017) in 'The Lancet Countdown project' that climate policy health co-benefits provide 'a powerful incentive to accelerate policy change, as these benefits are experienced in the near term … ' One suitable policy instrument here could be a global meat tax, as proposed by Jarka, Tinggaard, and Tomas (2018), or national carbon taxation.…”