Mechanical Response of Shallow Crust to Groundwater Storage Variations: Inferences From Deformation and Seismic Observations in the Eastern Southern Alps, Italy

Pintori, Francesco; Serpelloni, Enrico; Longuevergne, Laurent; García, Alexander; Faenza, Licia; D'Alberto, Lucio; Gualandi, Adriano; Belardinelli, Maria Elina

doi:10.1029/2020jb020586

Cited by 28 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…The color scale shows the number of points used for the linear regression, a measure of the stability of the results (the hotter the color, the more reliable the δv / v value, see supplementary material). For comparison, we plot the groundwater storage (GWS) variations for this area (Pintori et al., 2021) and the strain response obtained from geodetic observations (Serpelloni et al., 2018). The seismic results show a sign‐reversed resemblance to both strain and GWS variations revealing an anticorrelation relation, and thus making the fluid‐content variations within the karstic aquifer to be responsible for the observed seismic‐velocity perturbations.…”

Section: Network Response Of the Relative Seismic‐velocity Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is part of the prealpine belt in the Italian Southeastern Alps (Figure 1), located at the convergence between the Adriatic and Eurasian plates (Serpelloni et al., 2016). This area has already been the subject for tectonic deformation (Anderlini et al., 2020), hydrological cycle (Filippini et al., 2018; Grillo et al., 2019; Pintori et al., 2021), and seismicity studies (Anselmi et al., 2011; Chiaraluce et al., 2009; Danesi et al., 2015). The map in Figure 1 shows the location of the major thrusts and fissured‐karst aquifers (Bundesanstalt für Geowiβenschaften und Rohstoffe, 1970) in the study area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Pintori et al. (2021) found that the transient deformation signal in the GPS displacements is highly correlated with changes in groundwater storage, and that the deformation pattern is guided by water‐pressure changes in a hydrologically‐active fracture, running parallel to the Cesen‐Visentin fold‐and‐thrust belt (see Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological Effects on Seismic‐Noise Monitoring in Karstic Media

Vidal

Zaccarelli

Pintori

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Fluctuations in groundwater content produce changes in strain loading of the Earth's crust causing transient episodes of surface deformation that can be precisely measured by geodetic techniques (Devoti et al., 2015;Silverii et al., 2016). These surface-deformation signals have traditionally been the target of geodetic measurements to study the changes in the Earth's crust and eventually changes in groundwater. At the same time, groundwater-content variations also generate temporal alterations in the elastic properties of the subsurface. Since the propagation of seismic waves can be sensitive to the presence of fluids in the medium, seismological measurements emerge as an alternative to monitor the groundwater-content variations in the Earth's crust (

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Section: Network Response Of the Relative Seismic‐velocity Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological Effects on Seismic‐Noise Monitoring in Karstic Media

Vidal

Zaccarelli

Pintori

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Furthermore, important observations are available just for the last few decades (e.g., values of geodetic deformation from GNSS or gravity data from GRACE) and are still insufficient to investigate on the systematic connection between precipitation and the rare occurrence of serious earthquakes. Nevertheless Pintori et al (2021) have carried out an important research of this type for the central sector of the study area, analyzing the relationship between precipitation and minor seismicity in the time period 2010-2019. The present study adopted a complementary approach and looked at major seismicity in a long time period using solely statistical methods (no physical modeling).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic Triggering of Large Earthquakes by Karst Water Recharge: Statistical Evidence in Northeastern Italy

Bragato

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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It is known that surface water accumulation by natural or anthropic causes like precipitation and reservoir impoundment can trigger earthquakes. The phenomenon is amplified and sped up in karst areas, where fracture systems can store large quantities of water and facilitate its percolation to seismogenic depths, increasing both elastic stress and pore pressure on pre-existent faults. The present work explored the possibility that this mechanism had systematically triggered major earthquakes in northeastern Italy, where seismicity is concentrated along the pre-Alpine thrust belt, characterized by the alignment of a series of karst massifs. The time occurrence of damaging and destructive earthquakes (moment magnitude Mw between 4.8 and 6.4) since 1901 was compared with the evolution of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), an index of soil moisture that summarizes precipitation and, through temperature, water evaporation. Statistical analysis based on the bivariate Ripley’s K-function shows a significant time correlation between earthquakes and the peaks of PDSI since 1934, with the two strongest earthquakes (1936 Alpago-Cansiglio earthquake and 1976 Friuli earthquake, Mw 6.1 and 6.4, respectively) placed by the two PDSI maxima. The analysis was extended back in time to the last millennium, showing a time correlation between the occurrence of destructive earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.2) and the peaks of ice extension in the European Alps, assumed as a proxy for groundwater accumulation in the study area. This evidence presented herein coupled with geological characteristics of the area and recent observations on large crustal deformations induced by heavy precipitation suggests that, if PDSI is a valid ground water indicator, karst water recharge may play a role in triggering major earthquakes in northeastern Italy, also relating their occurrence to the large scale climate changes affecting precipitation and evaporation.

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“…We assume that in absence of other stress perturbation sources, the regional release of background seismicity is predominantly influenced by the regional tectonic stress field; in such a context, it can be expected that a steady stress field should tend to generate background seismicity with stationary rates; however, if other natural (e.g., hydrogeology: see Hainzl et al, 2006;Pintori et al, 2021) or man-made (e.g., pressurized fluid injections: see Shapiro et al, 2007;Garcia-Aristizabal, 2018) processes are able to perturb the local stress field, then it is possible that the rate at which seismicity is released in that specific area can be altered. In such a case, slight deviations from stationarity could possibly be measured.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Hydrocarbon Extraction From the Crust Enhance or Inhibit Seismicity in Tectonically Active Regions? A Statistical Study in Italy

et al. 2021

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A number of oil- and gas-producing leases have been operating in Italy in the last decades, many of which are located in the surroundings of tectonically active regions. Identifying human-induced seismicity in areas with high levels of natural seismicity is a difficult task for which virtually any result can be a source of controversy. We implemented a large-scale analysis aiming at tracking significant departures of background seismicity from a stationary behavior around active oil and gas development leases in Italy. We analyzed seismicity rates before and after hydrocarbon peak production in six oil-producing and 43 gas-producing leases, and evaluate the significance of possible seismicity rate changes. In a considerable number of cases seismicity rate results stationary. None of the observed cases of seismicity rate increase after the peak production is statistically significant (at a s.l. = 0.05). Conversely, considering cases of seismicity rate decrease after peak production, our results suggest that the seismicity rate reduction is statistically significant (s.l. = 0.05) around one oil-producing lease (Val d’Agri, Basilicata) and around a cluster of gas-producing leases in Sicily. Our results put in evidence correlated changes between the rates of shallow seismicity and hydrocarbon production in these areas, which are then identified as hotspots requiring more detailed research; assessing actual causal relationships between these processes will require further physically-based modelling. If a physical causative link between these processes exists, then the observed seismicity rate reduction could either be due to increased seismicity during the progressive increase in production before reaching its maximum, or to an actual seismicity rate reduction after that peak. Considering that there is evidence of seismicity occurring before the start of hydrocarbon production, which contrasts with the evident reduction of events observed after the peak production, we think it likely that the seismicity inhibition is a plausible hypothesis. Using a simple model we also calculate Coulomb stress changes in planes optimally oriented for failure, and we show that under some conditions the inhibition of seismicity is feasible in at least one of these cases. We conclude that more efforts to study the mechanisms and the possible consequences of anthropogenically-driven seismicity inhibition are required.

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Mechanical Response of Shallow Crust to Groundwater Storage Variations: Inferences From Deformation and Seismic Observations in the Eastern Southern Alps, Italy

Cited by 28 publications

References 87 publications

Hydrological Effects on Seismic‐Noise Monitoring in Karstic Media

Hydrological Effects on Seismic‐Noise Monitoring in Karstic Media

Systematic Triggering of Large Earthquakes by Karst Water Recharge: Statistical Evidence in Northeastern Italy

Can Hydrocarbon Extraction From the Crust Enhance or Inhibit Seismicity in Tectonically Active Regions? A Statistical Study in Italy

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