Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

Declining bird populations across the United States have been noted in a number of studies. Although multiple explanations have been proposed as causes of these declines, agricultural intensification has often been suggested as a significant driver of bird population dynamics. Using spatially explicit USDA-NASS Cropland Data Layer, we examined this relationship by comparing bird count data from the Breeding Bird Survey collected between 1995 and 2016 across 13 states in the central United States to corresponding categorical changes in land cover within a 2-km radius of each survey transect. This approach allowed us to compare the slopes of counts for 31 species of birds between grassland- and cropland-dominated landscapes and against increasing levels of cropland (all types combined) and pooled corn and soybean land cover types. Nearly all birds demonstrated significant responses to land cover changes. In all cases, the number of species exhibiting positive or negative responses was comparable, and median differences in percent change per year ranged from -0.5 to 0.7%. Species that responded either positively or negatively did not appear to fall into any particular foraging guild. If changes in agricultural practices are a major cause of declines, we would expect to see it across the spatial scale studied and across the majority of species. While these results do not rule out potential agricultural effects, such as toxicity resulting from pesticide exposure, which may have species-specific or localized effects, a variety of factors related to habitat are likely the most significant contributor overall. Given these results over a large spatial scale basis (multistate) and across numerous bird species, there is not a broad general trend of greater decline in crop-intensive areas. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:692-702. © 2018 SETAC.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Relative Abundance Trends of Bird Populations in High Intensity Croplands in the Central United States

Belden

McMurry

Maul

et al. 2018

“…The USEPA (, ) conducted probabilistic risk analyses for 13 listed bird species exposed to flowable CPY and MAL, including the Kirtland's warbler. Their probabilistic avian assessments relied on 2 models: the Terrestrial Investigation Model or TIM (version 3.0 beta) and the Markov Chain nest productivity model or MCnest (see Etterson et al ). The TIM is a multiple exposure route model used to estimate avian mortality from acute pesticide exposure.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic risk assessment for the Kirtland's warbler potentially exposed to chlorpyrifos and malathion during the breeding season and migration

Moore¹,

Priest²,

Olson³

et al. 2017

Two organophosphate pesticides, chlorpyrifos and malathion, are currently undergoing reregistration in the United States and were recently used by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) as case studies to develop a national procedure for evaluating risks to endangered species. One of the endangered bird species considered by the USEPA was the Kirtland's warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii). The Kirtland's warbler is an endangered migratory species that nests exclusively in young jack pine stands in Michigan and Wisconsin, and winters in the Bahamas. We developed probabilistic models to assess the risks of chlorpyrifos and malathion to Kirtland's warblers during the breeding season and the spring and fall migrations. The breeding area model simulates acute and chronic exposure and risk to each of 10 000 birds over a 60-d period following initial pesticide application. The model is highly species specific with regard to the foraging behavior of Kirtland's warblers during the breeding season. We simulated the maximum application rate and number of applications allowed on the labels for representative use patterns that could be found within 3 km of the breeding areas of Kirtland's warbler. The migration model simulates 10 000 birds during the course of their 12- to 23-d migration between their breeding area and the Bahamas. The model takes advantage of more than a century of observations of when, where, and for how long Kirtland's warblers forage in different habitats during the course of their migration. The data indicate that warblers only infrequently stop over in habitats that could be treated with chlorpyrifos and malathion. The breeding area and migration models resulted in predictions of very low acute and chronic risk for both pesticides to Kirtland's warblers. These results were expected, given that field observations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler has dramatically increased in abundance in recent decades. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:252-269. © 2017 SETAC.

“…Including these techniques along with field validation of model results may expedite the review process while allowing continued improvement of risk assessment and management. In fact, population modeling provides the basis for the combined Terrestrial Investigation Model/Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (Etterson et al 2017), which is an approach that the USEPA now suggests for assessing terrestrial ecological risks. Before a population model can be used to support a regulatory assessment, several factors need a detailed evaluation and discussion with the regulators.…”

Section: Examples Of Higher Tier Effects and Exposure Refinements Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Overcoming Challenges of Incorporating Higher Tier Data in Ecological Risk Assessments and Risk Management of Pesticides in the United States: Findings and Recommendations from the 2017 Workshop on Regulation and Innovation in Agriculture

Levine

Giddings²,

Valenti

et al. 2019

Pesticide regulation requires regulatory authorities to assess the potential ecological risk of pesticides submitted for registration, and most risk assessment schemes use a tiered testing and assessment approach. Standardized ecotoxicity tests, environmental fate studies, and exposure models are used at lower tiers and follow well‐defined methods for assessing risk. If a lower tier assessment indicates that the pesticide may pose an ecological risk, higher tier studies using more environmentally realistic conditions or assumptions can be performed to refine the risk assessment and inform risk management options. However, there is limited guidance in the United States on options to refine an assessment and how the data will be incorporated into the risk assessment and risk management processes. To overcome challenges to incorporation of higher tier data into ecological risk assessments and risk management of pesticides, a workshop was held in Raleigh, North Carolina. Attendees included representatives from the United States Environmental Protection Agency, United States Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, universities, commodity groups, consultants, nonprofit organizations, and the crop protection industry. Key recommendations emphasized the need for 1) more effective, timely, open communication among registrants, risk assessors, and risk managers earlier in the registration process to identify specific protection goals, address areas of potential concern where higher tier studies or assessments may be required, and if a higher tier study is necessary that there is agreement on study design; 2) minimizing the complexity of study designs while retaining high value to the risk assessment and risk management process; 3) greater transparency regarding critical factors utilized in risk management decisions with clearly defined protection goals that are operational; and 4) retrospective analyses of success–failure learnings on the acceptability of higher tier studies to help inform registrants on how to improve the application of such studies to risk assessments and the risk management process. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:714–725. © 2019 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).