Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion

Abstract

Abstract. Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions.

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest

“…Occurrences in New South Wales, Australia and Florida, USA and even latitudinal outliers like Ontario, Canada are well explained (see Figure 3d,e; Table 1). Nevertheless, invasions beyond the currently predicted limits of SHBs distribution might also be possible if the species manages to adapt to novel conditions (Atwater et al, 2016;Chapman, Scalone, Štefanić, & Bullock, 2017;Krehenwinkel, Rödder, & Tautz, 2015). Since SHBs naturally occur from the Kalahari to equatorial rainforests of sub-Saharan Africa (Neumann & Elzen, 2004), it is inevitable that the native range holds different ecotypes (Neumann et al, 2016) likely leading to a high adaptive potential of this species after invasions.…”

Niche expansion of the invasive plant species Ageratina adenophora despite evolutionary constraints

“…Our analysis, however, shows that A. adenophora has expanded its realized niche globally beyond its native niche, thus necessitating caution in interpreting predictions from climatic niche models based on native range only (Fitzpatrick & Hargrove, ). Therefore, it is advisable to use the pooled occurrence data from native as well as all the exotic ranges in order to get closer to the fundamental niche for species with reduced evolutionary potential (Broennimann & Guisan, ), or if possible rely on more mechanistic, physiology‐based models (Chapman, Scalone, Štefanić, & Bullock, ; Kearney & Porter, ). Similarly, while conducting risk assessment studies under future climatic scenarios, caution should be taken when interpreting the results, e.g.…”

Oxygen supply did not affect how lizards responded to thermal stress

“…These models describe the thermoregulatory behavior of an animal in a given climate and determine whether this behavior con-fers the body temperatures needed to survive and reproduce. Given the climate of a region, one can use a mechanistic niche model to predict the geographic range of a species (Kearney et al 2008;Buckley et al 2010;Chapman et al 2017). In principle, then, such models can tell us where species can live in future climates (Kearney et al 2010b;Chapman et al 2017;Petric et al 2017).…”