Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, R.; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Álvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2507-3

Cited by 222 publications

(286 citation statements)

References 65 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

248

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…But in case it is confirmed, it could have important consequences for the future evolution of medicanes, as projections of the Mediterranean mixed layer depth show important future changes, which depend on the emissions scenario (Adloff et al 2015). This would increase the utility of applying ocean-atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

International audienceMedicanes are cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea having a tropical-like structure but a rather small size, that can produce significant damage due to the combination of intense winds and heavy precipitation. Future climate projections, performed generally with individual atmospheric climate models, indicate that the intensity of the medicanes could increase under climate change conditions. The availability of large ensembles of high resolution and ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, performed in MedCORDEX and EURO-CORDEX projects, represents an opportunity to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on medicanes. As a first step towards such an improved assessment, we analyze the ability of the RCMs used in these projects to reproduce the observed characteristics of medicanes, and the impact of increased resolution and air-sea coupling on their simulation. In these storms, air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in their formation and intensification, a different mechanism from that of extra-tropical cyclones, where the baroclinic instability mechanism prevails. An observational database, based on satellite images combined with high resolution simulations (Miglietta et al. in Geophys Res Lett 40:2400–2405, 2013), is used as a reference for evaluating the simulations. In general, the simulated medicanes do not coincide on a case-by-case basis with the observed medicanes. However, observed medicanes with a high intensity and relatively long duration of tropical characteristics are better replicated in simulations. The observed spatial distribution of medicanes is generally well simulated, while the monthly distribution reveals the difficulty of simulating the medicanes that first appear in September after the summer minimum in occurrence. Increasing the horizontal resolution has a systematic and generally positive impact on the frequency of simulated medicanes, while the general underestimation of their intensity is not corrected in most cases. The capacity of a few models to better simulate the medicane intensity suggests that the model formulation is more important than reducing the grid spacing alone. A negative intensity feedback is frequently the result of air-sea interaction for tropical cyclones in other basins. The introduction of air-sea coupling in the present simulations has an overall limited impact on medicane frequency and intensity, but it produces an interesting seasonal shift of the simulated medicanes from autumn to winter. This fact, together with the analysis of two contrasting particular cases, indicates that the negative feedback could be limited or even absent in certain situations. We suggest that the effects of air-sea interaction on medicanes may depend on the oceanic mixed layer depth, thus increasing the applicability of ocean–atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change analysis of this kind of cyclones

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In particular, Adloff et al (2015) have shown that global warming could modify the circulation patterns. This would induce local differences in sea surface height of up to +10 cm.…”

Section: Spatial Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component (Li et al 2012) and of NEMOMED8 (Beuvier et al 2010;Adloff et al 2015) as oceanic component. NEMOMED8 is a regional configuration of the NEMO ocean model (Madec 2008), setup for the Mediterranean Sea.…”

Section: Lmdz-med-fixed Atlanticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

et al. 2017

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

show abstract

“…In addition, discharges to the sea are rendering the Skhira harbour environment hostile for native species and favouring the proliferation of invasive species (both native and non-native) [30], which represent a possible threat due to climate change [31]. Mosbahi et al (2015) presented a first description of the intertidal macrozoobenthic communities in a small part of the Kneiss Islands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Structures of the Macrozoobenthos from the Intertidal Zone of the Kneiss Islands (Central Mediterranean Sea)

Mosbahi¹,

Pezy²,

Dauvin³

et al. 2016

OJMS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The present study analyses the spatio-temporal variability of the macrozoobenthos from the intertidal zone of the Kneiss Islands (Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia). Samples were collected once from 34 stations, while seasonal variations were studied by sampling four times at 12 stations over the period 2013-2014. A total of 159 macrobenthos taxa associated with intertidal Zostera noltei beds are identified from the 34 stations, with a taxonomic dominance of crustaceans (32%), molluscs (29%) and annelids (27%). Abundance varies from 9244 to 36,844 ind·m −2 with a mean value of 14,346 ind·m −2 . Analysis of the trophic structure shows that the majority of stations are strongly represented by carnivores (41%), followed by the non-selective deposit feeders (16%). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling allow identification of three main benthic assemblages based on species abundance, corresponding to different sediment types and organic matter contents. The seasonal variability in abundance, diversity and community structure is mainly due to spring and summer recruitment. The biotic indices (i.e. AMBI, BO2A and BENTIX) show that the intertidal area of Kneiss Islands exhibits a good ecological status.

show abstract

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

Cited by 222 publications

References 65 publications

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling and increased resolution

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

Spatial and Temporal Structures of the Macrozoobenthos from the Intertidal Zone of the Kneiss Islands (Central Mediterranean Sea)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About