Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic Index

Amelung, Bas; Viner, David

doi:10.2167/jost549.0

Cited by 233 publications

(184 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The northward shift of favourable tourism climate as well as the "bimodal shoulder peak" distribution are changes also reported for the Mediterranean (Amelung and Viner 2006) as well as North America (Scott et al 2004). For Southern Europe our results are similar to those of Amelung and Viner (2006). However, they state that the region displays a "summer peak" distribution in the reference period of 1961-1990, while our calculations show an attenuated "bimodal shoulder peak" distribution (see Fig.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Tci Distributionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…The few studies have shown that climate change can substantially redistribute climate resources across regions and between seasons (see Amelung et al 2007 for a global scale; Amelung and Viner 2006 for the Mediterranean; and Scott et al 2004 for North America). The TCI is favoured as an index because it is one of the most comprehensive metrics, integrating all three facets of climate considered relevant for tourism: thermal comfort, physical aspects such as rain and wind, and the aesthetical facet of sunshine/cloudiness.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

2010

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Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski's "Tourism Climatic Index" (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period to the A2 scenario in 2071-2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe's suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April.

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Section: Projected Changes In Tci Distributionsupporting

confidence: 61%

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confidence: 99%

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

2010

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“…Many previous studies, which were conducted in North America and the Mediterranean, predicted that the available seasons for leisure activities will expand and that the demand will shift from July and August to May to June and September to October [7,18]. This study predicted a similar shift in the preferred period from June to September to May, June, September, and October.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…The results of this study showed that areas with comfortable weather conditions will move north due to global temperature increases. Amelung and Viner [18] and Scott, McBoyle, and Schwartzentruber [7] analyzed the TCI (Tourism Climatic Index) of popular recreation destinations, such as the Mediterranean and Florida, and predicted the change in preferred seasons for these cities as a result of climate change in the future. The results of this study showed that the preferred season at present, normally July and August, will be less preferable in the future because of extremely hot weather conditions, while seasons that are less preferable now, such as June and September, will become more popular because of generally warmer weather during these months.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities

Kim¹,

Park²,

Lee³

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:The purpose of this study is to predict changes in the season for outdoor water activities due to climate change. Nine public outdoor swimming pools in three megacities of South Korea (Seoul, Daegu, and Busan) were selected as study sites. To determine the preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities, the preference functions of weather elements for outdoor water activities were structured by finding the best-fitting lines with the Z-score of the number of visitors, which is calculated for each swimming pool each year, and the inflection points or the stabilized point of preference functions are set as thresholds for preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities. To predict changes in the preferred season for outdoor water activities, future weather data for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s derived from RCP scenarios are adapted to the thresholds of preferred weather conditions. The results of this study show that the preferred temperature range for outdoor water activities is: 24.6 • C to 35.0 • C in Seoul, 25.5 • C to 35.5 • C in Daegu, and 27.4 • C to 34.4 • C in Busan, and that the maximum threshold for precipitation is: 36.5 mm in Seoul, 31.5 mm in Daegu, and 26.5 mm in Busan. The results of this study show that the preferred season for outdoor water activities will expand compared to its current duration due to warmer temperatures in the future, and the preferred period for these activities will shift from June to September to May to June and September to October due to extremely hot weather in July and August beginning in the 2030s. The results of this study imply that there will be major changes in the demand and operation of outdoor water activities due to climate change, making it necessary to begin preparations to combat and respond to climate change.

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“…Koeniglewis and Bischoff (2005) reviewed past tourism seasonality studies and found that "natural and institutional" factors are the two major causes of tourism seasonality. Past studies (Amelung & Viner, 2006;Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007;Dwyer & Kim, 2003;Gomez, 2005;Hamilton & lau, 2004;Stern, Hoedt, & ernst, 2000) have recognized the link between climate variables and seasonal variation but no attempt has been made to quantify the impact of maximum temperature, hours of sunshine, and humidity on seasonal variation using a time-series model. The importance of adopting a quantitative approach in seasonality research has recently been emphasized (Koeniglewis & Bischoff, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Seasonal Variation in Tourism Flows with Climate Variables

Kulendran¹,

Dwyer²

2012

Tourism Analysis

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The purpose of this article is to model and forecast the seasonal variation, the fluctuations in tourist numbers from season to season in Australian inbound holiday tourism, using climate variables such as maximum temperature, humidity, and hours of sunshine. For estimation purposes this study uses quarterly data on arrivals from the US, UK, Japan, and New Zealand to Australia from September 1975 to September 2009. Seasonal variation, which is the respective and predictable movement of visitation around the trend line, was first extracted from the quarterly holiday tourist arrivals timeseries using the Basic Structural Model (BSM) approach. Subsequently, the influence of climate variables on seasonal variation in different seasons was identified using the average euclidean minimum distance (AD) statistics. The AD statistics show that climate variables shape the characteristic of seasonal variation of tourism flows but the effect tends to vary between seasons and countries. A time-series model was estimated with climate variables to forecast seasonal variation. The forecasting comparison result shows that climate variables improve the forecasting performance. The approach can be replicated to help destination managers and forecasters determine if climate variables influence tourism flows between other origins and destinations globally.

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Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic Index

Cited by 233 publications

References 19 publications

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities

Modeling Seasonal Variation in Tourism Flows with Climate Variables

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