Abstract. Spring wheat is a major food crop that is a staple for a large
number of people in India and the world. To address the issue of food
security, it is essential to understand how the productivity of spring wheat
varies with changes in environmental conditions and agricultural management
practices. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of different
environmental factors and management practices on wheat production in India
in recent years (1980 to 2016). Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration
([CO2]) and climate change are identified as two major factors that
represent changes in the environment. The addition of nitrogen fertilizers
and irrigation practices are the two land management factors considered in
this study. To study the effects of these factors on wheat growth and
production, we developed crop growth processes for spring wheat in India and
implemented them in the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), a
state-of-the-art land model. The model is able to simulate the observed leaf area index (LAI) at the site scale and observed production at the country scale. Numerical experiments are conducted with the model to quantify the effect of each
factor on wheat production on a country scale for India. Our results show
that elevated [CO2] levels, water availability through irrigation, and
nitrogen fertilizers have led to an increase in annual wheat production at
0.67, 0.25, and 0.26 Mt yr−1, respectively, averaged over the time
period 1980–2016. However, elevated temperatures have reduced the total
wheat production at a rate of 0.39 Mt yr−1 during the study period.
Overall, the [CO2], irrigation, fertilizers, and temperature forcings
have led to 22 Mt (30 %), 8.47 Mt (12 %), 10.63 Mt (15 %), and −13 Mt
(−18 %) changes in countrywide production, respectively. The magnitudes of
these factors spatially vary across the country thereby affecting production
at regional scales. Results show that favourable growing season
temperatures, moderate to high fertilizer application, high availability of
irrigation facilities, and moderate water demand make the Indo-Gangetic
Plain the most productive region, while the arid north-western region is the
least productive due to high temperatures and lack of irrigation facilities
to meet the high water demand.