Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates

Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou; Chamberlain, Trevor W.

doi:10.1080/15140326.2020.1722384

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…However, the findings of such studies remain at best inconclusive and often contradictory. Broadly speaking, previous studies on this subject can be divided into Lanka; El-Sakka and for Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Sudan and Tunis; Shirazi and Manap (2005) for Sri Lanka and India; Tang (2006) for China; Tang (2006) for China; Shirazi and Manap (2005) for Sri Lanka and India; more recently, Kalaitzi and Chamberlain (2020) for the case of the United Arab Emirates in the long run.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

Odhiambo

2021

EJMBE

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PurposeThis study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries' stage of development as proxied by their per capita income.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model.FindingsAlthough the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries.Practical implicationsThese findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries' stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries.Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

Odhiambo

2021

EJMBE

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“…The empirical model was derived from neo-classical growth theory and is based on a Cobb-Douglas production function with constant returns to scale [45,55]. Exports were assumed to impact the output via an effect on total factor productivity (TFP).…”

Section: Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These findings are consistent with the early work of [44], who reported that exports exert a negative impact on the economic growth of Asian and African countries. One reason brought forward [44,45] for this negative impact is that less-developed countries primarily focus on exporting primary goods whose prices are heavily volatile, which, in turn, leads to volatile export revenues and increased economic uncertainty.…”

Section: The Export-led Growth Hypothesis and Its Empirical Supportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fish Exports and the Growth of the Agricultural Sector: The Case of South and Southeast Asian Countries

2021

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The per-capita demand of fish and fish products, and paired to it, their production and trade, have substantially increased during the last few decades. For many developing countries these developments open a channel for sustainable economic progress. Against this background, this article investigates whether fish exports Granger-cause long-run economic growth of the agricultural sector (“fish export-led growth”) in a panel of eight South and Southeast Asian countries. A dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is estimated based on data for the years 2000 to 2018. The results indicate that fish exports have a significant positive impact on the growth of the agricultural sector in the long run. These findings apply to both the lower- and the upper-middle-income countries included in the analysis. Long-run Granger causality tests within a panel vector error correction model indicate that agricultural value added per worker reacts to deviations from the long-run equilibrium, whereas fish exports per worker are weakly exogenous. Thus, the paper finds supporting evidence for fish export-led growth. The paper concludes with some thoughts about how this finding can help policymakers in their attempt to induce sustainable agricultural development to eradicate poverty and to enhance living standards.

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“…Some of the previous empirical studies have aimed to test the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for the UAE economy by using either of the following; manufactured exports, total exports or non-oil exports as focal variables (Alodadi, A. A. S. (2016); Kalaitzi, A. S., and Cleeve, E. (2018); Kalaitzi, A. S., and Chamberlain, T. W. (2020); Kalaitzi, A. 2015).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The findings of some existing studies reveal that exports play a crucial role in the economic growth of the UAE. For instance, Kalaitzi, A. S., & Chamberlain, T. W. (2020) in their study on the role of exports on the economic growth of the UAE examine the impact of merchandise exports on economic growth for the period 1975-2012 in order to test the validity of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for the UAE economy. The study incorporates the Cointegration test, ECM, and dynamic ordinary least squares test to confirm the long-run relationship between UAE exports and economic growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Export Diversification and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates: An Empirical Investigation

Shadab¹

2020

Preprint

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Using the Vector Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto Causality approach, this paper investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between export diversification, physical and human capital, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. The study period in consideration is 1975-2017. The findings obtained from the VECM test confirm the existence of a significant long-run relationship between export diversification, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. Besides, the Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality test results reveal that imports Granger-cause UAE’s economic growth which proves the validity of the Import-Led Growth hypothesis for the UAE economy in the long-run. The results also confirm that a unidirectional causal relationship exists from export diversification to economic growth for the UAE. This finding indicates the success of the UAE economy in attaining economic diversification and reduction from oil-dependency.

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Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates

Cited by 31 publications

References 75 publications

Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

Fish Exports and the Growth of the Agricultural Sector: The Case of South and Southeast Asian Countries

Export Diversification and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates: An Empirical Investigation

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