Meridional position biases of East Asian subtropical jet stream in <scp>CMIP5</scp> models and their relationship with ocean model resolutions

Ma, Jing; Xu, Haiming; Lin, Pengfei

doi:10.1002/joc.4256

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Furthermore, the CMIP6 models simulate smaller biases of U200 than the CMIP5 models (Figure 2(b,c)). The biases of U200 are characterized by a 'positivenegative-positive' tripole pattern, which is depicted by the shading in Figure 2(b), from south to north in the CMIP5 MME, which is similar to the results of Ma, Xu, and Lin (2015). The maximum and minimum biases are approximately 4.0 and −3.0 m s −1 , respectively.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 66%

“…Based on 14 CMIP5 models, Huang et al (2013) reported that large differences existed in both the intensity and location of the simulated EAJ, which contributed to the uncertainty in the simulation of the EASR. Ma, Xu, and Lin (2015) also showed substantial meridional position biases for the EAJ among 20 CMIP5 models, although the multimodel ensemble (MME) was able to present a very realistic EAJ. Recently, Lin, Fu, and Lu (2019) also noted that the CMIP5 models exhibited large discrepancies in the longitudinal locations of the core of the EAJ.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Lin

Guo

2020

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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The East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) plays a crucial role in affecting the East Asian summer rainfall (EASR). Therefore, evaluations of EAJ simulations are vital for improving the understanding and projections of climate change in East Asia. This study evaluates the simulations of the climatology and interannual variability in the present-day summer EAJ in the CMIP6 models and compares the results with those in the CMIP5 models by analyzing the historical climate simulations of 29 CMIP5 models and 21 CMIP6 models during the period from 1986-2005. In general, the CMIP6 models capture the EAJ more realistically than the CMIP5 models. The results show that the CMIP6 models reasonably capture the spatial features of the climatological zonal wind at 200 hPa and simulate a smaller zonal wind bias along the EAJ. The locations of the EAJ's core are at the observed location in nearly all CMIP6 models but in only approximately two-thirds of the CMIP5 models. The EAJ's intensity is closer to the observed value and exhibits a smaller intermodel dispersion in the CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models also show an improved ability to reproduce the interannual variability in the EAJ's meridional displacement and have a stronger relationship with the EASR.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Lin

Guo

2020

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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“…To limit anthropogenic influence on climate systems, the 2015 Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) includes two long-term global temperature goals, i.e., "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 • C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 • C" (UNFCCC, 2015). While a world of 2 • C warming is inadequate to be considered safe (SED, 2015), there is a lack of scientific research regarding the 1.5 • C target, especially for regional climates (Mitchell et al, 2016). Studies generally evaluated differences of global climate impacts at global warming of 1.5 and 2 • C levels (Schleussner et al, 2016;Sanderson et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

Liu

Deng

2018

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 ∘C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30–40∘ N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 ∘C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 ∘C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5 ∘C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2 ∘C warming.

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“…Associated with a positive phase of the SRP, high‐pressure anomalies over western Asia and East Asia and low‐pressure anomalies over Europe and central Asia, benefiting the precipitation over the northern Asia in summer, and vice versa for the negative phase of the SRP (Hong and Lu, ; Hong et al ., ; ; Wang et al ., ; Xuan et al ., ; He et al ., ). The SST variations over the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean would affect the precipitation variation over the eastern China by impacting the intensity of the EAJS (Zhang et al ., ; Kuang and Zhang, ; Lin and Lu, ; Huang et al ., ) or the meridional shift of the EAJS (Sampe et al ., ; Qu and Huang, ; Huang et al ., ; ; Ma et al ., ; Xue and Zhang, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The decadal shift of the long persistent rainfall over the northern part of China and the associated ocean conditions

Yan

Huang

Zhu

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The long persistent rainfall (LPR) over the northern part of China has a great impact on its society and economics. This study investigates the decadal shift of the regional‐mean LPR frequency over the northern part of China (LPR frequency) from 1971 to 2014 and the associated ocean conditions. The LPR frequency has experienced a significant decadal shift around 1996, with an enhanced (reduced) anomaly before (after) 1996, which is closely associated with a meridional tri‐pole sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the central Pacific, a La Niña‐like anomaly for the pre‐1996 epoch (1971–1996) and an obvious warming over the south Indian Ocean and the western part of south Pacific Ocean in the post‐1996 epoch (1997–2014). In the pre‐1996 epoch, associated with the typical SSTs, the ascent motion with increasing humidity anomalies are over the northern part of China. Meanwhile, high (low) pressure anomalies are over western Asia and East Asia (Europe and central Asia), which resembles as the positive phase of the Silk Road pattern (SRP). It would be associated with the polewards shift of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and therefore result in the northwards shift of the rain belt and benefit the occurrence of the LPR. In the post‐1996 epoch, associated with the warming over the specific south oceans, a descend anomaly dominates over the northern part of China, as well as the resembled negative phase of the SRP over mid‐high latitudes and equatorwards shift of the EAJS. These would suppress the rainfall over the northern part of China and reduce the LPR frequency over there after 1996.

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Meridional position biases of East Asian subtropical jet stream in CMIP5 models and their relationship with ocean model resolutions

Cited by 14 publications

References 31 publications

Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

The decadal shift of the long persistent rainfall over the northern part of China and the associated ocean conditions

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